45% OF BITCOIN SUPPLY HAS NOT MOVED IN 6 MONTHS — RESEARCH

Last updated: June 19, 2025, 18:24 | Written by: Marc Andreessen

Imagine holding onto a winning lottery ticket for half a year, resisting the urge to cash it in despite the roller coaster of emotions and market fluctuations.That's precisely what a significant portion of Bitcoin investors are doing.Recent on-chain data reveals a fascinating trend: nearly 45% of the total Bitcoin supply has remained untouched in wallets for at least the past six months. Nearly half the available Bitcoin (BTC) supply has not moved in the past six months, onchain data confirms. In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, The Week Onchain, analytics firmThis isn't just a number; it's a compelling narrative about long-term conviction, strategic accumulation, and the evolving dynamics of the Bitcoin ecosystem.This article will delve deep into the implications of this dormancy, exploring the factors driving this behavior, what it signals about market sentiment, and what it could mean for the future of Bitcoin. 45% of Bitcoin Supply Hasn't Moved in 6 Months, Research Shows Nearly half of Bitcoin's supply has remained inactive for six months, with long-term holders (LTHs) showing strong commitment despite market volatility, according to Glassnode's latest data.We'll examine the data from leading analytics firms like Glassnode, dissect the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs), and consider how this trend impacts Bitcoin's price discovery and overall stability.So, buckle up as we unravel the story behind the dormant Bitcoins and what it means for you as a crypto investor.

Understanding Bitcoin Dormancy and Long-Term Holding

The concept of Bitcoin dormancy refers to the period a Bitcoin address remains inactive, without any outgoing transactions. A significant portion of Bitcoin s supply remains untouched, with over 45% of the total supply staying dormant in wallets for at least the past six months, according to on-chain data from Glassnode. This suggests that a large segment of investors is steadfast in holding their BTC despite recent market volatility.When a significant portion of the Bitcoin supply remains dormant, it suggests that a large number of investors are choosing to hold onto their assets rather than spend or trade them. Bitcoin may have put in a new all-time high some five months ago, but a large section of the BTC investor base continues to double down on its holdings. Analyzing the realized cap HODL waves indicator, Glassnode reveals that just over 45% of all bitcoins have remained dormant in their wallets for at least the past half a year.This phenomenon is often linked to the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs), individuals or entities who accumulate Bitcoin and hold it for extended periods, typically measured in months or years. Nearly 45% of the total Bitcoin supply has remained untouched for the past six months, according to data from Glassnode s recent The Week Onchain report. This trend indicates that a significant portion of Bitcoin holders are refraining from selling their assets, even amidst substantial price fluctuations.These LTHs are crucial to the Bitcoin ecosystem, as their actions can significantly influence market dynamics and price stability.

Why is Bitcoin Dormancy Important?

Bitcoin dormancy is a valuable indicator of market sentiment and investor behavior. It s a significant jump from only a week ago, on Aug. 11, when onchain analytics platform Glassnode data showed that almost half the BTC supply, around 45%, had been dormant for at least six months.High levels of dormancy can suggest:

Strong Belief in Bitcoin's Long-Term Value: Investors believe that Bitcoin's price will increase significantly in the future.
Reduced Selling Pressure: Fewer coins available for sale can lead to upward price pressure if demand remains constant or increases.
Mature Market: A growing base of long-term holders indicates a maturing market, less susceptible to short-term volatility.
Supply Shock Potential: If demand surges while a large portion of the supply remains dormant, it could trigger a supply shock, driving prices higher.

Conversely, a decrease in dormancy could signal increased selling pressure and a shift in market sentiment.Monitoring Bitcoin dormancy provides insights into the overall health and stability of the Bitcoin market.

Analyzing the 45% Dormancy Figure: A Deep Dive

The recent data indicating that approximately 45% of the Bitcoin supply has not moved in six months is a significant observation that warrants closer scrutiny.Let's break down the implications of this statistic:

Scale of Dormancy: 45% represents a substantial portion of the circulating Bitcoin supply, currently capped at 21 million coins.
Duration: Six months is a considerable period, suggesting that these holders are not merely reacting to short-term market fluctuations.
Source of Data: Reputable on-chain analytics firms like Glassnode are the source of this data, lending credibility to the analysis.

This information suggests a strong underlying belief in Bitcoin's long-term potential among a large segment of investors.It also highlights the importance of understanding on-chain data analysis in the context of cryptocurrency investments.

How is Dormancy Measured?

On-chain data analysis allows us to track the movement of Bitcoin across the blockchain.By analyzing transaction histories and wallet activity, analytics firms can determine:

Coin Age: The amount of time a Bitcoin has been held in a particular address.
Spent Output Age Bands: Grouping coins based on their age to identify trends in holding behavior.
Dormancy Flow: A metric that compares the current market capitalization to the annualized dormancy value (the value of dormant coins becoming active).

These metrics provide a comprehensive view of how Bitcoin is being held and transacted, offering valuable insights into market dynamics.

Factors Contributing to Long-Term Bitcoin Holding

Several factors contribute to the growing trend of long-term Bitcoin holding.These factors can be broadly categorized into:

Belief in Bitcoin as a Store of Value: Many investors view Bitcoin as a digital gold, a hedge against inflation, and a safe haven asset.
Adoption by Institutional Investors: Increased participation from institutional investors like hedge funds, corporations, and pension funds has led to greater accumulation and longer holding periods.
Limited Supply: Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins makes it a scarce asset, incentivizing holders to retain their coins in anticipation of future price appreciation.
Tax Implications: In many jurisdictions, selling Bitcoin triggers capital gains taxes.Holding for longer periods can defer or minimize these tax liabilities.
HODL Mentality: The ""HODL"" culture within the Bitcoin community encourages long-term holding, reinforcing the belief in Bitcoin's future potential.

These factors collectively create a compelling case for holding Bitcoin for the long term, explaining the high levels of dormancy observed in the market.

The Role of Institutional Investors

The increasing participation of institutional investors is a significant driver of long-term Bitcoin holding.These institutions typically have:

Long-Term Investment Horizons: They are often focused on long-term growth and are less likely to be swayed by short-term market fluctuations.
Larger Capital Allocations: They can allocate substantial amounts of capital to Bitcoin, further reducing the available supply.
Sophisticated Investment Strategies: They employ sophisticated investment strategies, including diversification and risk management, to optimize their Bitcoin holdings.

The presence of institutional investors adds legitimacy and stability to the Bitcoin market, further encouraging long-term holding behavior.

Impact of Dormant Bitcoin on Market Dynamics

The significant portion of dormant Bitcoin has several important implications for market dynamics:

Reduced Supply Availability: With nearly half of the Bitcoin supply locked up in long-term holding, the amount of Bitcoin available for trading is significantly reduced.
Potential for Price Volatility: A smaller circulating supply can amplify price volatility, especially during periods of high demand or panic selling.
Increased Price Discovery Challenges: With a large portion of the supply not actively traded, it can be more challenging to accurately gauge the true market value of Bitcoin.
Opportunity for Short Squeezes: A limited supply can make Bitcoin susceptible to short squeezes, where a sudden surge in demand forces short sellers to cover their positions, driving prices higher.

Understanding these market dynamics is crucial for investors seeking to navigate the Bitcoin market effectively.

The Supply Shock Scenario

One potential consequence of high Bitcoin dormancy is the possibility of a supply shock.This scenario occurs when demand for Bitcoin suddenly surges while a large portion of the supply remains dormant.The resulting scarcity can drive prices exponentially higher as buyers compete for the limited available supply.

While a supply shock is not guaranteed, the current levels of Bitcoin dormancy make it a plausible scenario that investors should be aware of.

How to Interpret Bitcoin Dormancy as an Investor

As an investor, understanding Bitcoin dormancy can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential investment opportunities.Here are some key takeaways:

Monitor Dormancy Trends: Track the percentage of dormant Bitcoin over time to identify shifts in market sentiment.
Consider Coin Age Distribution: Analyze the distribution of coin ages to understand the proportion of long-term holders versus short-term traders.
Combine with Other Indicators: Use dormancy data in conjunction with other technical and fundamental indicators to make informed investment decisions.
Manage Risk Appropriately: Be aware of the potential for increased price volatility due to reduced supply availability.

By incorporating Bitcoin dormancy into your investment analysis, you can gain a more nuanced understanding of the Bitcoin market and make more informed investment decisions.

Practical Example: Using Dormancy Data in Trading

Let's say you're considering buying Bitcoin.You notice that the percentage of dormant Bitcoin has been steadily increasing over the past few months, indicating a growing base of long-term holders.This suggests that the market is becoming more mature and less susceptible to short-term volatility.Coupled with positive fundamental news, this could be a signal to consider a long-term investment in Bitcoin.

Conversely, if you see a sharp decline in Bitcoin dormancy, it could indicate increased selling pressure and a potential correction.This might be a signal to reduce your exposure to Bitcoin or take profits on existing positions.

Addressing Common Questions about Bitcoin Dormancy

Many investors have questions about Bitcoin dormancy and its implications.Here are some common questions and their answers:

Q: Does dormant Bitcoin mean lost Bitcoin?
A: Not necessarily.Dormant Bitcoin simply means that it has not been moved in a while.It could be held by long-term investors, locked in cold storage, or even lost forever.
Q: How accurate is the data on Bitcoin dormancy?
A: The accuracy of the data depends on the quality of the on-chain analytics firm providing the information.Reputable firms like Glassnode have a strong track record of providing accurate and reliable data.
Q: Can Bitcoin dormancy be manipulated?
A: While it's possible to manipulate small amounts of Bitcoin to create artificial dormancy, it's difficult to manipulate large percentages of the supply without incurring significant costs and attracting unwanted attention.
Q: What are the risks of investing in Bitcoin with high dormancy?
A: The main risk is the potential for increased price volatility due to reduced supply availability.Investors should be prepared for potentially larger price swings.

Understanding these common questions and their answers can help you better assess the risks and opportunities associated with investing in Bitcoin.

The Future of Bitcoin and Long-Term Holding

The trend of long-term Bitcoin holding is likely to continue as Bitcoin matures and gains wider adoption.Several factors support this outlook:

Increasing Institutional Adoption: More institutions are expected to allocate capital to Bitcoin in the future, further reducing the available supply.
Growing Awareness of Bitcoin's Potential: As more people learn about Bitcoin's potential as a store of value and a hedge against inflation, demand is likely to increase.
Advancements in Custody Solutions: Secure and convenient custody solutions are making it easier for individuals and institutions to hold Bitcoin for the long term.
Regulatory Clarity: Greater regulatory clarity is expected to provide more certainty and encourage wider adoption of Bitcoin.

These factors suggest that Bitcoin is on a path towards greater stability and wider acceptance, further reinforcing the case for long-term holding.

Actionable Advice for Investors

Here are some actionable steps you can take to capitalize on the trend of long-term Bitcoin holding:

Consider a Buy-and-Hold Strategy: If you believe in Bitcoin's long-term potential, consider adopting a buy-and-hold strategy, accumulating Bitcoin and holding it for the long term.
Diversify Your Portfolio: While Bitcoin offers significant potential, it's important to diversify your portfolio to manage risk.
Stay Informed: Keep up-to-date with the latest developments in the Bitcoin market, including on-chain data, regulatory changes, and technological advancements.
Use Secure Storage Solutions: Store your Bitcoin in secure wallets, such as hardware wallets or multi-signature wallets, to protect your assets from theft.

By following these steps, you can position yourself to benefit from the long-term growth of Bitcoin while managing risk effectively.

Conclusion: Key Takeaways and Future Outlook

The fact that 45% of the Bitcoin supply has not moved in six months speaks volumes about the conviction of long-term holders and the maturing nature of the Bitcoin market.This phenomenon contributes to reduced supply availability, potential price volatility, and the possibility of future supply shocks.As an investor, understanding Bitcoin dormancy and its implications is crucial for making informed investment decisions.By monitoring dormancy trends, analyzing coin age distribution, and combining this data with other indicators, you can gain a more nuanced understanding of the Bitcoin market and position yourself for long-term success.The future of Bitcoin and digital assets is bright, and being informed is the best way to navigate this evolving landscape.Consider adopting a long-term holding strategy and always prioritize security when managing your digital assets.