$600M IN BITCOIN OPTIONS EXPIRE ON FRIDAY, GIVING BEARS REASON TO PIN BTC UNDER $16K

Last updated: June 20, 2025, 00:48 | Written by: Jed McCaleb

The Bitcoin market is bracing for a potentially volatile Friday as a massive $600 million in Bitcoin options are set to expire. Bears are better positioned for Friday s $600 million BTC options expiry, but bulls can flip the tables if Bitcoin price trades above $18,000. No one can blame Bitcoin (BTC) bulls forThis event has significant implications for the price of Bitcoin (BTC), with bears currently positioned to capitalize on the situation.The expiry date, November 18th, is circled on many traders' calendars, and the outcome could dictate the short-term trajectory of the leading cryptocurrency. $600M in Bitcoin options expire on Friday, giving bears reason to pin BTC under $16K $600M in Bitcoin options expire on Friday, giving bears reason to pin BTC underThe bearish sentiment stems from recent market turmoil, especially the fallout from the FTX insolvency. $600M in Bitcoin options expire on Friday, giving bears reason to pin BTC under $16KBulls, who had previously placed optimistic bets at higher price levels, now find themselves in a precarious position.Can they pull off a surprise rally, or will the bears succeed in pushing Bitcoin below the critical $16,000 mark? Bears are better positioned for Friday s $600 million BTC options expiry, but bulls can flip the tables if Bitcoin price trades above Cookie Policy 44 (0) 203 8794 460 Free Membership LoginThis options expiry is not just a date on the calendar; it's a battleground where bulls and bears will fight for control of the Bitcoin narrative.Understanding the dynamics of this expiry is crucial for anyone involved in the cryptocurrency market, as it could trigger significant price swings and shape investment strategies in the weeks to come.

Understanding Bitcoin Options Expiry

Bitcoin options expiry refers to the date on which Bitcoin options contracts become due and must be exercised or settled. $600M in Bitcoin options expire on Friday, giving bears reason to pin BTC under $16K Novem 0:04An option gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call option) or sell (put option) Bitcoin at a predetermined price (strike price) on or before a specific date (expiry date). The Nov. 18 options expiry is especially relevant because Bitcoin bears can secure a $120 million profit by suppressing BTC below $16,500. Bulls placed their bets at $20,000 and higher. The open interest for the Nov. 18 weekly options expiry is $600 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bulls were overly-optimistic.When options expire, the difference between the strike price and the spot price of Bitcoin determines whether the option is ""in the money"" (profitable) or ""out of the money"" (worthless).

The significance of a large options expiry, like the $600 million one occurring on Friday, lies in its potential to influence market prices. The open interest for the Nov. 18 weekly options expiry is $600 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bulls were overly-optimistic. These traders missed the mark, placing bearish bets at $18,000 and higher, while BTC was dumped following the FTX insolvency.Traders often adjust their positions in the spot market to hedge their options positions, a process known as ""gamma hedging."" This hedging activity can create buying or selling pressure, especially as the expiry date approaches.In this particular case, the large open interest suggests that the expiry could lead to substantial price volatility.

The $600 Million Options Expiry: A Closer Look

Open Interest and Strike Prices

The $600 million figure represents the total open interest for the November 18th weekly options expiry.Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding options contracts that have not been exercised or expired. BTCUSD Bitcoin $600M in Bitcoin options expire on Friday, giving bears reason to pin BTC under $16K Bears are better positioned for Friday's $600 million BTC options expiry, but bulls can flip the tables if Bitcoin price trades above $18,000.However, it's important to note that the actual figure in play at expiry might be lower than $600 million.

This is because many of the options contracts, particularly those with strike prices far from the current Bitcoin price, are unlikely to be exercised. $600M in Bitcoin options expire on Friday, giving bears reason to pin BTC under $16K⁣ bitcoinoptions btc bears giving expireFor example, the research snippets indicate that bulls placed bets at $18,000 and even $20,000 and higher. Bears are better positioned for Friday s $600 million BTC options expiry, but bulls can flip the tables if Bitcoin price trades above $18,000. No one can blame Bitcoin (BTC) bulls for placing bets at $20,000 and higher for the $600 million weekly options expiry on Nov. 18. After all, this level had provided a solid resistance since Oct. 25 and held for almost two weeks. However, the baseWith Bitcoin currently trading lower, these options are likely to expire worthless, reducing the effective open interest.

The Impact of the FTX Insolvency

The FTX insolvency has fundamentally altered the market landscape.Before the crisis, bulls were optimistic and placed bets based on a bullish outlook. No one can blame Bitcoin (BTC) bulls for placing bets at $20,000 and higher for the $600 million weekly options expiry on Nov. 18. After all, this level had Facebook Twitter YoutubeThe $20,000 level had previously acted as a solid resistance, giving bulls confidence.However, the FTX collapse triggered a sharp sell-off, leaving many bulls underwater and shifting the advantage to the bears. $600M in Bitcoin options expire on Friday, giving bears reason to pin BTC under $16K. Bears are better positioned for Friday s $600 million BTC options expiry, but bulls can flip the tables if Bitcoin price trades above $18,000.The market is now factoring in increased risk and uncertainty, leading to a more cautious and bearish sentiment.

Bears vs.Bulls: Positioning for Profit

Bearish Scenario: Pinning BTC Under $16,000

The bears are strategically positioned to profit from this options expiry. The Nov. 18 options expiry is especially relevant because Bitcoin bears can secure a $120 million profit by suppressing BTC below $16,500. Bulls placed their bets at $20,000 and higher The open interest for the Nov. 18 weekly options expiry is $600 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bulls were overly-optimistic.Their primary goal is to suppress the price of Bitcoin below $16,500. No one can blame Bitcoin (BTC) bulls for placing bets at $20,000 and higher for the $600 million weekly options expiry on Nov. 18. After all, this level had provided a solid resistance since Oct. 25 aAchieving this would allow them to secure a significant profit.According to the provided snippets, this profit could amount to approximately $120 million.

To achieve this, bears will likely employ strategies to drive the price down, such as short-selling Bitcoin and exerting selling pressure in the spot market. No one can blame Bitcoin (BTC) bulls for placing bets at $20,000 and higher for the $600 million weekly options expiry on Nov. 18. After all, this level had provided a solid resistance since Oct. 25 and held for almost two weeks. However, the base scenario changed abruptly on Nov. 8 after a liquidity crisis [ ]The expiry event amplifies their ability to influence the price, as they can exploit the hedging activities of options traders.

Bullish Scenario: Flipping the Tables Above $18,000

Despite the challenging circumstances, the bulls still have a chance to turn the tide.Their best-case scenario involves a significant price pump, pushing Bitcoin above $18,000.If they manage to achieve this, they could flip the tables and secure a profit. $16.5B in Bitcoin options set to expire on March 28. Bulls need BTC above $90K to recover lost positions. Bears aim to push the price below $84K for a $600M gain.The potential gain for the bulls in this scenario is estimated at $25 million, according to the available information.

However, achieving this bullish outcome requires a considerable effort.They would need to orchestrate a substantial buying surge to overcome the bearish pressure.This could involve coordinating large buy orders and generating positive sentiment in the market.

The Critical Levels: $16,500 and $18,000

The price levels of $16,500 and $18,000 are crucial battlegrounds for this options expiry.If the bears can successfully keep the price below $16,500, they will secure their $120 million profit and reinforce the bearish sentiment.Conversely, if the bulls can stage a rally above $18,000, they will inflict losses on the bears and potentially spark a new bullish trend.

How Options Expiry Affects Bitcoin Price

Option expiry events can significantly influence the price of Bitcoin through several mechanisms:

Gamma Hedging: As the expiry date approaches, market makers and traders who have sold options contracts need to hedge their positions. $600M in Bitcoin options expire on Friday, giving bears reason to pin BTC under $16K Bears are better positioned for Friday s $600 million BTC options expiry, but bulls can flip the tables if Bitcoin price trades above $18,000.This involves buying or selling Bitcoin to offset the risk of their options positions.This hedging activity can create artificial buying or selling pressure, driving the price towards the strike price of the most heavily traded options.
Max Pain Theory: The ""max pain"" theory suggests that the price of an asset will gravitate towards the strike price that causes the maximum financial loss for option holders at expiry.Market makers, who are typically net sellers of options, have an incentive to push the price towards this level to maximize their own profits.
Psychological Impact: Options expiry can also have a psychological impact on the market.Traders may become more cautious and risk-averse leading up to the expiry, which can lead to increased volatility and unpredictable price swings.

Lessons from Past Bitcoin Options Expiries

Analyzing past Bitcoin options expiries can provide valuable insights into how these events typically impact the market.While each expiry is unique, certain patterns tend to emerge:

Increased Volatility: Options expiries are often associated with increased price volatility, especially in the days leading up to the expiry date. Option expirations are the time for bears to get a leg up on bears if they want price low. $600M in Bitcoin options expire on Friday, giving bears reason to pinThis is due to the hedging activities and the uncertainty surrounding the outcome.
Pinning: The price of Bitcoin often gets ""pinned"" around a particular strike price in the days leading up to expiry. Bitcoin bears need to push the price below $16,500 to secure a $120 million profit. The bulls' best-case scenario requires a 10% pump above $18,000 to flip the tables and score a $25 million gain.This is a result of market makers trying to minimize their losses by keeping the price near the strike price where the largest number of options contracts are outstanding.
Post-Expiry Relief: After the expiry, the market often experiences a period of relief, as the hedging activities subside and the uncertainty dissipates. AMD Stock Falls After Downgrade From BofA, Citing DecemThis can lead to a sharp price movement in either direction, depending on the overall market sentiment.

Strategies for Trading Around Bitcoin Options Expiry

Trading around Bitcoin options expiry can be risky, but it also presents opportunities for profit. BTCUSD Bitcoin $600M in Bitcoin options expire on Friday, giving bears reason to pin BTC under $16K. Bears are better positioned for Friday's $600 million BTC options expiry, but bulls can flipHere are some strategies that traders can consider:

Monitor Open Interest: Pay close attention to the open interest data for different strike prices.This can provide insights into where the market is likely to move.
Track Gamma Exposure: Monitor the gamma exposure of market makers. 📣 ⁠$600M in Bitcoin options expire on Friday, giving bears reason to pin BTC under $16K. DYORThis can help you anticipate potential hedging activities and price movements.
Use Options Strategies: Consider using options strategies, such as straddles or strangles, to profit from increased volatility.
Be Cautious: Exercise caution and manage your risk carefully, especially in the days leading up to expiry.
Consider the Broader Market Context: Options expiry is just one factor that influences the price of Bitcoin.It's essential to consider the broader market context, including macroeconomic trends, regulatory developments, and investor sentiment.

The Broader Implications for Bitcoin's Price

While the immediate impact of the $600 million options expiry is on the short-term price of Bitcoin, the event also has broader implications for the cryptocurrency's future trajectory. No one can blame Bitcoin (BTC) bulls for placing bets at $20,000 and higher for the $600 million weekly options expiry on Nov. 18. After all, this level had provided a solid resistance since Oct. 25 and held for almost two weeks.However, the base sceA successful suppression of the price by bears could reinforce the negative sentiment stemming from the FTX collapse, potentially leading to further downward pressure.Conversely, a surprise rally by the bulls could signal a resurgence of confidence and pave the way for a recovery.

Furthermore, the outcome of this expiry could influence the positioning of traders in the options market going forward.A bearish outcome could lead to increased demand for put options (bets on a price decrease), while a bullish outcome could increase demand for call options (bets on a price increase).This, in turn, could affect the overall supply and demand dynamics of Bitcoin and its derivative products.

Beyond November 18th: Looking Ahead

While the focus is currently on the November 18th expiry, it's crucial to remember that the Bitcoin market is dynamic and constantly evolving.Other significant options expiries are scheduled in the coming months, and each one will present its own set of challenges and opportunities.For instance, there was a substantial $16.5 billion Bitcoin options expiry on March 28, where bulls needed BTC above $90K to recover lost positions, while bears aimed to push the price below $84K for a $600M gain.Staying informed about these events and understanding their potential impact is essential for any serious Bitcoin trader or investor.

Common Questions About Bitcoin Options Expiry

What is Bitcoin options expiry?

Bitcoin options expiry is the date on which Bitcoin options contracts become due and must be exercised or settled.An option gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call option) or sell (put option) Bitcoin at a predetermined price (strike price) on or before a specific date (expiry date).

How does Bitcoin options expiry affect the price of Bitcoin?

Bitcoin options expiry can affect the price of Bitcoin through gamma hedging, the ""max pain"" theory, and psychological impact on the market.Hedging activities can create artificial buying or selling pressure, driving the price towards the strike price of the most heavily traded options.The ""max pain"" theory suggests that the price of an asset will gravitate towards the strike price that causes the maximum financial loss for option holders at expiry.

What are the key price levels to watch during Bitcoin options expiry?

Key price levels to watch depend on the specific expiry and the open interest distribution.In the case of the November 18th expiry, the levels of $16,500 and $18,000 were critical, with bears aiming to keep the price below $16,500 and bulls striving to push it above $18,000.

Is it safe to trade Bitcoin around options expiry?

Trading Bitcoin around options expiry can be risky due to increased volatility and unpredictable price swings.It's essential to exercise caution, manage your risk carefully, and consider the broader market context before making any trading decisions.

Conclusion: Navigating the Options Expiry Landscape

The $600 million Bitcoin options expiry on November 18th presented a significant challenge and opportunity for both bulls and bears.While the bears were initially better positioned to profit by pinning the price below $16,500, the bulls could potentially flip the tables with a rally above $18,000.Understanding the dynamics of options expiry, including gamma hedging and the ""max pain"" theory, is crucial for navigating these events effectively.

Key takeaways from this analysis:

A large Bitcoin options expiry can significantly influence the price of Bitcoin.
Bears were positioned to profit by suppressing the price below $16,500.
Bulls could potentially stage a rally above $18,000 to counter the bearish pressure.
Trading around options expiry can be risky, but it also presents opportunities for profit.
Staying informed and managing risk are essential for success in the Bitcoin market.

As the Bitcoin market continues to evolve, understanding options expiries and their potential impact will become increasingly important for traders and investors.By staying informed, managing risk effectively, and adapting to changing market conditions, you can increase your chances of success in the world of Bitcoin trading.Remember to always conduct your own research (DYOR) before making any investment decisions.Now, more than ever, vigilance and informed decision-making are crucial for success in the volatile cryptocurrency market.