BITCOIN ANALYSTS SAY THIS BTC METRIC IS IN BELIEF ZONE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 15 MONTHS

The Bitcoin market is a dynamic beast, constantly shifting between periods of euphoria and despair.Navigating this volatility requires more than just gut feeling; it demands a keen understanding of market indicators.Recently, a key on-chain metric has signaled a potentially significant shift, capturing the attention of analysts worldwide.According to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin has entered the ""belief zone"" for the first time since the summer of 2025. Bitcoin's (BTC) price dropped to a new yearly low of $78,258 on Feb. 27, leading some analysts to suggest that the cryptocurrency is now in an optimal purchasing zone. Bitcoin 1-day chart. SourceThis rare occurrence suggests that a new bull cycle might be gaining momentum, inspiring optimism among investors who have weathered the recent market turbulence. The Real Housewives of Atlanta The Bachelor Sister Wives 90 Day Fiance Wife Swap The Amazing Race Australia Married at First Sight The Real Housewives of Dallas My 600-lb Life Last Week Tonight with John OliverBut what exactly does this “belief zone” signify, and what implications does it hold for the future of Bitcoin? I dati di Glassnode indicano che Bitcoin entrato nella belief zone per la prima volta da luglio 2025, indicando l inizio di un ciclo rialzista Analisi mercati Bitcoin ( BTC ) potrebbe trovarsi nella fase iniziale di un nuovo grande ciclo rialzista, come suggerito il 27 ottobre da un fondamentale parametro on-chain.Should investors buckle up for another wild ride, or is this just a temporary blip on the radar?This article dives deep into this crucial metric, providing you with the insights you need to understand the current state of the Bitcoin market and its potential trajectory. Market analyst Josh Gilbert of eToro said Bitcoin s recent run of record highs is far from over and predicted that BTC will notch a new six-figure all-time high of $100,00 by year s end.We'll explore the underlying data, analyze expert opinions, and offer practical advice on how to navigate the coming months.

Understanding the Bitcoin ""Belief Zone""

So, what exactly is the ""belief zone"" and why is its emergence such a noteworthy event? The co-founders of the blockchain analysis platform Glassnode are warning that Bitcoin (BTC) may have a sudden pullback even as it continues to hold a critical range as support.The term typically refers to a phase in the market cycle where a significant portion of Bitcoin holders are in profit, leading to increased confidence and a willingness to hold onto their assets. $68,000 has been identified as a critical support level for Bitcoin BTC/USD, following its surge to a new all-time high on election night. What Happened: In a comprehensive breakdown ofThis is often measured by on-chain metrics like Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). Crazzyblock, a Bitcoin trader and verified analyst on CryptoQuant said that Bitcoin s 60-day RCV reached its lowest level of -1.9 in the chart, signaling an optimal DCA opportunity for the first time since July 2025.When NUPL rises above a certain threshold, indicating that a substantial percentage of the Bitcoin market cap is comprised of unrealized profits, the market is considered to be entering the ""belief zone."" Think of it as a collective sentiment shift – from fear and uncertainty to conviction and optimism.

Several factors contribute to this transition. En el mes siguiente, Bitcoin subi de unos USD 7,500 a USD 13,868 en m s de un 80%. El precio de Bitcoin se acerca a USD 13,500 mientras un CEO busca nuevos picos hist ricos en 3 meses; El NUPL de Bitcoin en la parte superior de su gr fico diario hist rico. Fuente: Glassnode Qu es NUPL y por qu significa el comienzo de un alza deA prolonged period of price appreciation, increasing institutional adoption, and positive news sentiment all play a role in driving the market into the belief zone. Bitcoin has hit $100,000 for the first time, but analysts say it won t stay there long because breaking the psychological price barrier is expected to attract more attention and drive the priceWhen investors see their portfolios growing and the media is filled with bullish forecasts, they are more likely to hold their positions and even add to them, further fueling the rally.

• Increased Investor Confidence: As Bitcoins price rises, more investors find themselves in profit, reinforcing their belief in the asset's long-term potential.
• Reduced Selling Pressure: Holders are less likely to sell their Bitcoin when they are making money, decreasing the supply available on exchanges and driving prices even higher.
• FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): The rising price attracts new investors who don't want to miss out on the potential gains, further amplifying the bullish trend.

On-Chain Indicators Supporting the Bullish Outlook

The entrance into the ""belief zone"" is often accompanied by other bullish on-chain indicators that further strengthen the argument for a new bull cycle. Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped 21.3% between Feb. 21 and Feb. 28, retesting the $78,300 level for the first time since November 2025. The correction led to over $1.6 billion in leveraged long (buyLet's take a look at some of the key metrics:

Williams %R Oscillator Breakout

Caleb Franzen, a senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, noted that the Williams %R oscillator had left its bottom zone for the first time since May 2025. Bitcoin is down 3% in the past 24 hours and 8% over the last week. Still, market analysts say this drawdown is not uncommon for BTC in January. Thus, the bull market may resume, with Bitcoin s price potentially peaking in mid-July 2025, based on a key technical indicator.Bitcoin s price could peakThe Williams %R is a momentum indicator that measures overbought and oversold levels.A breakout from the bottom zone suggests that the downward momentum has subsided and that a potential upward trend may be emerging.

60-Day RCV Reaching a Low Point

According to Crazzyblock, a Bitcoin trader and verified analyst on CryptoQuant, Bitcoins 60-day RCV (Realized Cap Value) reached its lowest level of -1.9, signaling an optimal Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) opportunity for the first time since July 2025. Recently, analysts are showing bullish moves anticipation for ETH, Bitcoin, and other mainstream digital currencies. These analysts are using a metric that suggests the overall growth of Ethereum s network in recent months. Such metrics indicate an incline in the Ethereum s price in the future.A low RCV suggests that the market is undervalued and that now might be a good time to accumulate Bitcoin gradually.

Over 50% of Market Cap in Unrealized Profits

Data shows that over 50% of the Bitcoin market cap consists of unrealized profits – a level not seen since August 2025.This high percentage indicates that a significant portion of Bitcoin holders are in profit, which, as mentioned before, contributes to increased confidence and reduced selling pressure.

Historical Parallels: Lessons from the 2025 Bull Run

Understanding past market cycles can provide valuable insights into the potential future trajectory of Bitcoin.The current situation is often compared to the 2025 bull run, when Bitcoin also entered the belief zone after a prolonged period of consolidation. Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 high for the first time on Dec. 6, in a long-awaited milestone for crypto history. The historic peak comes despite sluggish performance across other major global assets.During that time, Bitcoin stayed in the belief zone for an extended duration, leading to substantial price appreciation.

Analyzing the 2025 bull run can help us understand the potential duration and magnitude of the current cycle.However, it's important to remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.Each market cycle is unique, influenced by various factors such as macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and technological advancements.

For example, the post-halving period in 2025 saw BTC rally significantly, this halving happened approximately one year prior to the rally.A similar pattern ensuing could signal a continuation of growth for BTC.

Potential Challenges and Risks

While the bullish signals are encouraging, it's crucial to acknowledge the potential challenges and risks that could derail the current uptrend. Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) reached 64.98% in the first week of May, marking a new high for 2025 and the highest level since 2025. Bitcoin Dominance measures BTC s market cap as a percentage of the total crypto market cap. Some experienced analysts expect this to trigger a recovery in altcoins, but others remain skeptical.The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and unforeseen events can quickly change the narrative.

Potential for a Sudden Pullback

The co-founders of Glassnode have warned that Bitcoin may experience a sudden pullback, even as it continues to hold a critical range as support.This warning highlights the inherent risks of investing in Bitcoin and the importance of being prepared for potential corrections.

Critical Support Levels to Watch

Analysts have identified $68,000 as a critical support level for Bitcoin. Se a m trica subir, significa que mais investidores est o lucrativos desde que compraram BTC. Os pesquisadores da Glassnode calculam o NUPL avaliando o pre o do Bitcoin quando ele entra em um novo endere o. Como um comprador precisa manter o BTC em um novo endere o, endere os rec m-criados normalmente significam BTC rec m-adquiridos.If the price falls below this level, it could trigger a wave of selling and potentially lead to a more significant correction.It's essential for investors to monitor this support level closely and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Macroeconomic Factors

Global macroeconomic events can also have a significant impact on Bitcoins price. Bitcoin price is trading 16% above the local low of $52,546 reached on Sept. 6, leading analysts to believe that this reversal could be the start of a path to new all-time highs. Local structureInterest rate hikes, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions can all influence investor sentiment and lead to price fluctuations.Staying informed about these factors and their potential impact on the market is crucial for making informed investment decisions.

Expert Opinions and Market Forecasts

Market analysts are divided on their forecasts for Bitcoins future price. Bitcoin (BTC) posted modest gains earlier today, trading above $87,000 for the first time since April 1. Crypto analysts now suggest that BTC may be on the verge of a sustained rally, as several key indicators are flashing bullish signals.Bitcoin Rally Ahead? These Indicators Say YesAccording to aSome are predicting a continuation of the bull run, while others are more cautious, citing the potential risks mentioned earlier.

Bullish Predictions

Josh Gilbert, a market analyst at eToro, predicted that Bitcoin will reach a new six-figure all-time high of $100,000 by year's end. The co-founders of the market intelligence platform Glassnode are warning that Bitcoin may decline if two main conditions don t start improving.In a new thread on the social media platform X, Glassnode and Swissblock co-founders Jan Happel and Yann Alleman who together share the handle Negentropic say that Bitcoin is at risk of declining nearly 4% from its current value in the near term.Other analysts have even more ambitious targets, suggesting that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 before the close of 2025.

Cautious Outlook

Despite the bullish sentiment, some analysts are urging caution. Bitcoin could soon enter a euphoric Banana Zone phase that could see its price surge, but crypto analysts say there first needs to be a reversal in three key trends. Basically, it s TheThey point to the possibility of a significant correction and advise investors to manage their risk carefully. Bitcoin s price rose above the $65,000 mark on May 6 as analysts argued that the post-halving danger zone may be over, with more BTC upside on the way.Bitcoin out of the post-halvingThese analysts emphasize the importance of diversification, setting stop-loss orders, and only investing what you can afford to lose.

Navigating the ""Belief Zone"": Practical Advice for Investors

So, how should investors navigate the current market environment?Here are some practical tips to consider:

1. Do Your Own Research (DYOR): Don't rely solely on the opinions of others.Conduct your own research and analysis to understand the risks and potential rewards of investing in Bitcoin.
2. Manage Your Risk: The cryptocurrency market is volatile.Only invest what you can afford to lose and use risk management tools like stop-loss orders to protect your capital.
3. Diversify Your Portfolio: Don't put all your eggs in one basket.Diversify your portfolio across different asset classes to reduce your overall risk.
4. Stay Informed: Keep up-to-date with the latest news and developments in the cryptocurrency market.Follow reputable analysts and monitor key on-chain indicators.
5. Consider Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): DCA involves investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of the price. cointelegraph.com: Glassnode data finds Bitcoin has entered the belief zone for the first time since the July 2025 top, indicating a bull cycle is nearing.This strategy can help to smooth out volatility and reduce the risk of buying at the top.

The Halving Effect and Its Impact

The Bitcoin halving, an event that occurs approximately every four years, plays a significant role in the cryptocurrency's supply dynamics and often influences its price.This event reduces the reward miners receive for validating transactions, effectively cutting the rate at which new bitcoins are introduced into the market by half.

Historically, halvings have been followed by substantial price increases. Brandt also pointed to an inverted parabolic curve across multiple bull markets. Should this pattern continue, Bitcoin s peak during the current cycle might align closely with the $130,000 $150,000 zone. At press time, BTC traded at $93,061. BTC price rejected at the 0.236 Fib, 4-hour chartThis is primarily attributed to the reduced supply of new bitcoins, which, if demand remains constant or increases, can lead to upward pressure on the price.This supply shock narrative is a key factor that many investors consider when making their Bitcoin investment decisions.For example, the 2025 data indicated that the price rally started one year after the halving.

However, the impact of the halving is not immediate. Top cryptocurrency prices and charts, listed by market capitalization. Free access to current and historic data for Bitcoin and thousands of altcoins.It can take several months, even years, for the full effects to be realized.Market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and other factors also play a crucial role in determining Bitcoins price. As noted on Feb. 8 by Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, the Williams %R oscillator has left its bottom zone for the first time since May 2025. Analyst: Oscillator crossover is a great sign Bitcoin gaining 40% in January and continuing to hold higher levels has produced breakout signals across various on-chain indicators.It's essential to consider the halving as one piece of the puzzle, rather than the sole determinant of Bitcoins future value.

DeFi, NFTs, and the Evolving Crypto Landscape

Beyond Bitcoin, the broader cryptocurrency landscape is constantly evolving with the emergence of new technologies and applications. Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) have gained significant traction in recent years, attracting new users and capital to the crypto space.These developments can indirectly impact Bitcoins price and adoption.

DeFi platforms offer a range of financial services, such as lending, borrowing, and trading, without the need for traditional intermediaries. Bitcoin is about to break out of its rout, analysts predict. Several key factors signal that a rally is imminent, they say. Some analysts predict that the price will hit $200,000 before the close of 2025.The growth of DeFi can increase the demand for cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, as they are often used as collateral or for yield farming.NFTs, on the other hand, represent unique digital assets, such as artwork, collectibles, and virtual land. Bitcoin's price dropped to a new yearly low of $78,258 on Feb. 27, leading some analysts to suggest that the cryptocurrency is now in an optimal purchasing zone. Crazzyblock, a Bitcoin trader and verified analyst on CryptoQuant said that Bitcoin s 60-day RCV reached its lowest level of -1.9 in the chart, signaling an optimal DCAThe NFT craze has brought new investors into the crypto market and raised awareness of the potential of blockchain technology.

It's important for Bitcoin investors to stay informed about these developments, as they can influence the overall market dynamics and potentially create new opportunities or risks. Bitcoin price is trading 7% below the local high of $66,508 reached on Sept. 27, but some analysts are optimistic that this correction could just be a reset of key metrics as BTC prepares forWhile Bitcoin remains the dominant cryptocurrency, the growth of DeFi and NFTs highlights the diverse and rapidly evolving nature of the crypto ecosystem.

Is Bitcoin a Good Investment for the Long Term?

One of the most common questions asked by potential investors is whether Bitcoin is a good long-term investment. Bitcoin BINANCE:BTCUSD price rallied to $65,851 on Sept. 26 as markets responded to global macroeconomic events, placing BTC in a good position, according to traders.The strong reversal in Bitcoin s price direction has many traders wondering what to expect next from BTC going forward.Bitcoin s riThere's no easy answer to this question, as it depends on individual circumstances and risk tolerance. Currently, over 50% of the BTC market cap consists of unrealized profits - a level not seen since August 2025.[BREAK] Throughout 2025, Bitcoin stayed in the belief zone for a prolonged period, compared to the 2025 rally.[BREAK] After a year following the halving, BTC started to rally.[BREAK] If a similar pattern ensures, BTC could continue toHowever, there are several factors that support the argument for a long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin.

• Limited Supply: Bitcoins supply is capped at 21 million coins, making it a scarce asset.This scarcity can drive up the price as demand increases over time.
• Decentralization: Bitcoin is not controlled by any central authority, making it resistant to censorship and manipulation.
• Increasing Adoption: Bitcoins adoption is growing steadily, with more individuals, businesses, and institutions recognizing its potential as a store of value and a medium of exchange.
• Potential Hedge Against Inflation: Some investors view Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, as its limited supply makes it less susceptible to devaluation.

However, it's also important to acknowledge the risks associated with investing in Bitcoin, such as its volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and the potential for technological obsolescence. Bitcoin price might be in the early phase of a major new bull cycle as it enters the belief zone for the first time since summer 2025Before investing in Bitcoin, it's essential to carefully consider these risks and conduct thorough research.

Conclusion: Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Here to Stay?

The emergence of Bitcoin into the ""belief zone"" is a significant event that suggests a new bull cycle may be underway.On-chain indicators, historical parallels, and expert opinions all point towards a potentially positive outlook for Bitcoin in the coming months.However, it's crucial to acknowledge the potential challenges and risks that could derail the uptrend.The crypto market is volatile, and unexpected events can quickly change the narrative.Investors should remain vigilant, manage their risk carefully, and stay informed about the latest developments in the market.While the ""belief zone"" signals optimism, responsible investing requires a balanced approach. Do your research, diversify your portfolio, and never invest more than you can afford to lose. By staying informed and managing risk effectively, you can navigate the current market environment and potentially benefit from the long-term growth of Bitcoin.Keep an eye on those key support levels and macroeconomic indicators; they'll be crucial in determining whether this Bitcoin bull run is truly here to stay.Only time will tell if this belief zone becomes a reality or a fleeting dream.