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Is the crypto winter finally thawing? Finbold consulted xAI s latest artificial intelligence (AI) model, Grok 3, to assess when Bitcoin might find a floor. According to the AI model, Bitcoin s correction is nearing its final stages, with a potential bottom forming in the coming weeks. The downturn follows Bitcoin s all-time high of $108,000 in late January.After a brutal correction that saw Bitcoin plummet from its all-time high, many investors are cautiously optimistic, wondering if the king of cryptocurrency is carving out a macro bottom.The market has shown some resilience, particularly after Bitcoin's rebound from around $17,500, a surge of approximately 25% after a significant 75% drawdown from its peak.Timing the market's bottom is notoriously difficult, but several on-chain and technical indicators are suggesting that a substantial low could be in the works.These aren't guarantees, of course, but they offer valuable insight into the market's overall health and potential direction.Considering the broad macro-economic environment playing a pivotal role, spotting these potential bottoms becomes even more important for strategic decision-making. Posted by u/Richmond_Dioso - 1 vote and no commentsSo, what are these indicators? 3 signs Bitcoin price is forming a potential macro bottom Jessyca Feest J Crypto Leave a comment Bitcoin ( BTC ) could be in the process of bottoming after gaining 25%, based on several market signals.Let's delve into three key signals that suggest Bitcoin might be establishing a long-term floor, offering a glimmer of hope for weary crypto investors.

On-Chain Indicator #1: Oversold Weekly RSI

One of the first signs that Bitcoin might be approaching a macro bottom comes from the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI). The third sign of Bitcoin forming a macro bottom comes from another on-chain indicator called the Puell Multiple. The Puell Multiple examines mining profitability and its impact on marketThe RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the market. LazAI 研究：AI 经济如何超越 DeFi TVL 神话. 若建立正确的经济基础设施（即生成高质量数据、合理激励其创造与使用，并以个体为中心），AI 将如何蓬勃发展。It oscillates between 0 and 100, with readings above 70 typically indicating an overbought condition and readings below 30 suggesting an oversold condition.

Historically, when Bitcoin's weekly RSI dips below 30, it can signal a potential buying opportunity.This occurred in the week of June 13th, marking the first time the RSI had entered oversold territory since December 2018.While an oversold RSI doesn't guarantee an immediate price reversal, it suggests that the selling pressure may be exhausting itself and that a bounce could be imminent.This ""oversold"" situation presents an attractive entry point for those willing to take on the risk.

Think of it this way: Imagine a rubber band stretched to its limit. Bitcoin's upside prospects are supported by at least three on-chain and technical metrics. Bitcoin (BTC) could be in the process of bottoming after gaining 25%, based on several market signals. BTC's price has rallied roughly 25% after dropping to around $17,500 on June 18. The upside retrace came after a 75% correction when measured from its November 2025 high of $69,000. BTC/USD daily priceEventually, it will snap back.Similarly, when Bitcoin's RSI becomes extremely oversold, it often precedes a period of upward price movement.Of course, it's essential to combine this signal with other indicators and analysis to confirm the potential bottom.

On-Chain Indicator #2: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) Jump

Another key indicator suggesting a potential Bitcoin macro bottom is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). The third sign of Bitcoin forming a macro bottom comes from another on-chain indicator called the Puell Multiple. The Puell Multiple examines mining profitability and its impact of market prices. The indicator does it bymeasuring a ratio of daily coin issuance (in USD) and the 365 moving average of daily coin issuance (in USD).NUPL is an on-chain metric that calculates the difference between the market value of Bitcoin and the realized value, divided by the market value.In simpler terms, it shows the overall profit or loss of all Bitcoin holders as a proportion of the market capitalization.

A positive NUPL value indicates that the majority of Bitcoin holders are in profit, while a negative value suggests that most are underwater.Historically, Bitcoin bottoms have often coincided with periods when NUPL drops into negative territory or hovers near zero, indicating peak fear and capitulation in the market.

When NUPL subsequently jumps above zero, it signals a potential shift in sentiment, suggesting that the market is transitioning from fear to hope. The third sign of Bitcoin forming a macro bottom comes from another on-chain indicator called the Puell Multiple. The Puell Multiple examines mining profitability and its impact on market prices. The indicator does it by measuring a ratio of daily coin issuance (in USD) and the 365-day moving average of daily coin issuance (in USD).This can be a powerful indicator of a macro bottom formation. Bitcoin s upside outlook is supported by at least three on-chain and technical indicators but has it bottomed? Bitcoin (BTC) may be bottoming out after a 25% rally, according to severalSo, keep an eye on this indicator for clues about the overall profitability of the Bitcoin network.

Here's a practical example: If you observe that NUPL was deeply negative for an extended period, reflecting widespread losses among Bitcoin holders, and then suddenly jumps above zero, it could be a sign that buyers are stepping in and that the market is beginning to recover. They are formed when price consolidates upwards after a strong downtrend, but fails to break a key support level. Here s a different perspective of BTC with the same conclusion: April trend line break plus failure to hold $106,600 plus a potential bear flag below resistance. $97,000-$98,000 is the objective. $106,600-$106,800 is myThis upward shift, coupled with other confirming signals, can provide a stronger case for a macro bottom.

On-Chain Indicator #3: The Puell Multiple

The third sign of a potential Bitcoin macro bottom comes from the Puell Multiple. 3 signs Bitcoin price is forming a potential 'macro bottom' Open in AppThis on-chain indicator examines mining profitability and its impact on market prices.It specifically looks at the ratio of daily coin issuance (in USD) and the 365-day moving average of daily coin issuance (in USD).

The Puell Multiple essentially assesses the revenue earned by Bitcoin miners relative to their historical average.When the multiple is low, it indicates that miners are earning significantly less than usual, which can lead to increased selling pressure as they struggle to cover their operating costs.Conversely, a high multiple suggests that miners are highly profitable, potentially leading to reduced selling pressure and increased accumulation.

Bitcoin macro bottoms have historically coincided with periods when the Puell Multiple is depressed, indicating that miners are under significant financial stress. Bitcoin price has rebounded similarly since June 18, opening the door to potentially repeat its history of parabolic rallies after an oversold RSI signal. Bitcoin NUPL jumps above zero. Another sign of a potential Bitcoin macro bottom comes from its net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) indicator.This often leads to capitulation, where miners sell off their holdings to stay afloat, exacerbating the downward price pressure.Once the miners' capitulation subsides and the Puell Multiple begins to rise, it can signal a potential bottom.

To illustrate: Imagine a scenario where Bitcoin's price plummets, causing a sharp decrease in mining revenue. Considering that much of bitcoin s price action is tightly related to macro conditions, it s more sensible to watch out for a macro bottom. But timing the macro bottom is no easy featAs a result, the Puell Multiple falls to extremely low levels. 3 signs Bitcoin price is forming a potential macro bottom 3 signs Bitcoin price is forming a potential 'macro bottom' - NFTScreen Bitcoin (BTC) could be in the process of bottoming after gaining 25%, based on several market signals.This signifies that miners are struggling to break even, and some may be forced to shut down their operations or sell their Bitcoin holdings. Bitcoin's upside prospects are supported by at least three on-chain and technical metrics but is the bottom in?Once the selling pressure from distressed miners diminishes and the Puell Multiple starts to rebound, it suggests that the worst may be over and that a bottom is forming.

Technical Analysis: Beyond On-Chain Data

While on-chain indicators offer valuable insights into Bitcoin's potential macro bottom, it's also important to consider technical analysis.Technical analysis involves studying historical price charts and using various technical indicators to identify patterns and potential trading opportunities.

Key Technical Patterns to Watch For

• Double Bottom: A double bottom pattern is formed when the price of Bitcoin declines to a certain level, bounces back up, then declines again to the same level before rallying strongly. Cointelegraph By Yashu Gola Bitcoin (BTC) could be in the process of bottoming after gaining 25%, based on several market signals. BTC s price has rallied roughly 25% after dropping to around $17,500 on June 18. The upside retrace came after a 75% correction when measured from its November 2025 high of $69,000. BTC/USD daily price chart. [ ]This pattern suggests that the downtrend has been exhausted and that a new uptrend may be emerging.
• Inverse Head and Shoulders: The inverse head and shoulders pattern is another bullish reversal pattern that is formed after a downtrend. The first sign of Bitcoin s macro bottom comes from its weekly relative strength index (RSI). Notably, BTC s weekly RSI became oversold after dropping below 30 in the week of June 13. That is the first time the RSI has slipped into the oversold region since December 2025.It consists of three troughs, with the middle trough (the ""head"") being lower than the other two (the ""shoulders"").A neckline connects the peaks of the shoulders, and a breakout above the neckline signals a potential trend reversal.
• Bullish Divergence: Bullish divergence occurs when the price of Bitcoin is making lower lows, while a momentum indicator, such as the RSI or MACD, is making higher lows.This suggests that the selling pressure is weakening and that a potential price reversal is on the horizon.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Identifying key support and resistance levels is also crucial for assessing potential macro bottoms. Bitcoin price is showing signs of weakening, as technical patterns and market data point to a possible sharp downturn. As of J, BTC s price has dropped by over 6% since May 23 and is trading above $104,000. Momentum indicators, volatility data, and futures positioning suggest bearish pressure is building across multiple timeframes.Support levels are price levels where buying pressure is expected to be strong enough to prevent further price declines, while resistance levels are price levels where selling pressure is expected to be strong enough to prevent further price increases.

If Bitcoin breaks above a significant resistance level after a period of consolidation, it could signal that the macro bottom is in place and that a new uptrend is beginning.Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to hold above a key support level, it could indicate that further downside is likely.

Analyzing potential bear flags and trendline breaks further contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics.For instance, a break below a key trendline coupled with failure to hold a certain price level (e.g., $106,600) could suggest further downward movement, potentially targeting lower support levels.

The Role of Macroeconomic Conditions

It's crucial to acknowledge that Bitcoin's price action is often intertwined with broader macroeconomic conditions. Bitcoin (BTC) could be in the process of bottoming after gaining 25%, based on several market signals.Factors such as interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical events can significantly influence investor sentiment and risk appetite, which in turn can impact Bitcoin's price.

For example, during periods of high inflation, investors may seek refuge in alternative assets like Bitcoin as a hedge against currency devaluation. 3 signs Bitcoin price is forming a potential 'macro bottom' cointelegraph.com, UTC Bitcoin (BTC) could be in the process of bottoming after gaining 25%, based on several market signals.Conversely, during periods of economic uncertainty or rising interest rates, investors may become more risk-averse and reduce their exposure to volatile assets like Bitcoin.

Therefore, it's essential to monitor macroeconomic developments closely and to consider their potential impact on Bitcoin's price. Bitcoin's upside prospects are supported by at least three on-chain and technical metrics. Bitcoin (BTC) could be in the process 3 signs Bitcoin price is forming a potential 'macro bottom' - XBT.MarketKeep an eye on indicators like the consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), and interest rate decisions by central banks. 3 signs Bitcoin price is forming a potential macro bottom 3 signs Bitcoin price is forming a potential macro bottomUnderstanding these external factors can provide a more complete picture of Bitcoin's potential macro bottom.

AI's Perspective: Grok 3 Weighs In

The rise of artificial intelligence is also impacting the crypto space, providing new perspectives on market trends.Finbold even consulted xAI's latest AI model, Grok 3, to assess when Bitcoin might find a floor.According to Grok 3, Bitcoin's correction is nearing its final stages, with a potential bottom forming in the coming weeks.This downturn, according to the AI, follows Bitcoin's all-time high earlier in the year.While AI predictions shouldn't be taken as gospel, they do offer an interesting alternative viewpoint to consider alongside traditional technical and on-chain analysis.

Actionable Advice for Crypto Investors

So, what can you do with this information?Here's some actionable advice to consider:

• Do Your Own Research (DYOR): Don't rely solely on the information presented in this article.Conduct your own thorough research, consult with financial advisors, and make informed decisions based on your own risk tolerance and investment goals.
• Diversify Your Portfolio: Don't put all your eggs in one basket.Diversify your investment portfolio across different asset classes to reduce your overall risk exposure.
• Manage Your Risk: Use stop-loss orders to limit your potential losses and avoid investing more than you can afford to lose.
• Stay Informed: Keep abreast of the latest developments in the crypto market, including on-chain data, technical analysis, and macroeconomic trends.
• Be Patient: Investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies requires patience and discipline.Don't get caught up in short-term price fluctuations.Focus on the long-term potential of the technology and the market.

Common Questions About Bitcoin Macro Bottoms

What is a Bitcoin macro bottom?

A Bitcoin macro bottom refers to a significant low point in the price of Bitcoin that marks the end of a long-term downtrend and the beginning of a new uptrend.It's a point where the market sentiment shifts from bearish to bullish, and where buyers begin to outnumber sellers.

How can I identify a Bitcoin macro bottom?

Identifying a Bitcoin macro bottom is not an exact science, but it can be done by analyzing a combination of on-chain indicators, technical analysis, and macroeconomic factors.Some key indicators to watch for include oversold RSI readings, positive NUPL jumps, depressed Puell Multiple values, bullish technical patterns, and favorable macroeconomic conditions.

Is it guaranteed that Bitcoin will form a macro bottom soon?

No, there is no guarantee that Bitcoin will form a macro bottom soon.The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and unpredictable, and there is always a risk of further price declines.However, the indicators discussed in this article suggest that the market may be approaching a potential bottom, and that a buying opportunity may be emerging.

What are the risks of trying to time the Bitcoin macro bottom?

Trying to time the Bitcoin macro bottom can be risky because it's impossible to predict the future with certainty.You could buy Bitcoin too early, before the bottom is actually in, and suffer further losses.Alternatively, you could wait too long and miss out on the initial rally after the bottom is formed.

Conclusion: Navigating the Crypto Landscape

While predicting the exact bottom of any market, including Bitcoin, remains an elusive task, by paying attention to these three key indicators – the oversold weekly RSI, the NUPL jump, and the Puell Multiple – investors can gain a better understanding of the market's potential trajectory.Remember, these signals should be considered alongside technical analysis and a thorough understanding of macroeconomic conditions.Furthermore, tools like AI models can provide alternative perspectives on potential market bottoms.By combining these insights with responsible investing practices, such as diversification and risk management, you can navigate the volatile crypto landscape with greater confidence.Whether the Bitcoin price is truly forming a macro bottom remains to be seen, but being informed and prepared is the best way to seize opportunities when they arise.Keep learning, stay vigilant, and happy investing!