3 SIGNS THAT BITCOIN PRICE IS NOT READY TO MAKE A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH

Last updated: June 19, 2025, 20:32 | Written by: Raoul Pal

Bitcoin's journey toward uncharted territories has been a rollercoaster, captivating investors and enthusiasts alike.The digital currency has experienced both exhilarating surges and unsettling dips, leaving many to wonder: when will Bitcoin finally shatter its previous peak and reach a new all-time high?While the allure of substantial gains remains strong, several undercurrents suggest that the path to a new ATH might not be as straightforward as some hope. ETH at $2,490 is actually a gut-wrenching 55% below its current inflation-adjusted price record of $5,513. ETH had to have reached $5,426 to break an all-time high in March. So, when it hit $4,090, that was actually 22% below the mark, rather than 14%. Right now, SOL is otherwise 44% below its own adjusted all-time high of $294, and was 28%Recent data shows Bitcoin reaching prices above $111,000, only to quickly retrace.Although Bitcoin has shown great potential in October, historically, that doesn't necessarily guarantee a sustained rally. Bitcoin price stabilizes around $111,000 on Friday after reaching a new all-time high of $111,900 this week. Corporate accumulation, institutional demand, signs of easing regulations and fiscalThis article dives deep into crucial indicators and market sentiments, exploring why, despite the optimism, Bitcoin might need more time before conquering its next major milestone. It traded at around $99,380 on Wednesday afternoon and is still more than 8% below its all-time high at $108,309 reached on Dec. 17.We'll examine China-focused stablecoin data, gauge retail investor participation, and analyze the skeptical undercurrents within BTC derivatives markets, providing a comprehensive overview of the challenges that Bitcoin faces in its quest for a new peak.

1. China-focused stablecoin data, retail investor participation and skeptical BTC derivatives markets are all signs that Bitcoin price is not primed for a new all-time high. BitcoinChina-Focused Stablecoin Data: A Barometer of Uncertainty

One of the critical indicators suggesting that Bitcoin might not be ready for a new all-time high lies in the data related to China-focused stablecoins. Bitcoin s (BTC) price has climbed 55% so far in 2025, including 12.50% gains in October. The first signs of Bitcoin entering a new bull cycle come from its which preceded the massiveThis metric acts as a proxy for Chinese investors' sentiment and activity in the cryptocurrency market.Even though cryptocurrency trading is officially restricted in China, various channels and methods allow Chinese investors to participate indirectly. Bitcoin's price soared to an all-time high, surpassing the $71,000 during early European trading. Bitcoin Price Climbs Beyond $71,000 Setting New All-Time High. with bitcoin's valueThese methods often involve the use of stablecoins pegged to the US dollar. Trump vs Musk Feud Causes $170BB Crypto Bloodbath - This COIN Set To Explode Join the live Zoom call at londonreal.tv/zoomWhen the demand for these stablecoins drops significantly, it signals a decrease in buying pressure coming from this substantial investor group.

When Chinese investors reduce their involvement in Bitcoin, it inevitably affects the overall market dynamics.Given China’s historical significance in cryptocurrency trading, any reduction in their participation can create significant headwinds for a potential Bitcoin rally. Last October, Bitcoin s price increased by 28.52%. If history were to repeat itself this year s October, this means Bitcoin would close the month at a new all-time high of $85,000. This, in turn, would set the stage for a further 17% increase to $100,000 in November and October.A lack of demand from this region can act as a crucial drag, stalling or even reversing the momentum that would otherwise propel Bitcoin toward a new all-time high.

Monitoring Stablecoin Trends

Actively tracking the movement of China-focused stablecoins helps traders and analysts better understand the ebb and flow of demand. Initially, an ascending parallel channel (black) contained the upward movement. However, after the BTC price broke out in November, the increase became parabolic, leading to a then Bitcoin all-time high of $99,800. While the BTC price fell afterward, creating a lower high on Nov. 29, it has regained its footing since and reached a new all-timeSome factors to watch include:

Trading Volumes: A decline in trading volumes for these stablecoins typically indicates reduced buying interest.
Exchange Flows: Watch for outflows from exchanges predominantly used by Chinese investors; this might point to a de-risking strategy.
Price Premiums/Discounts: Keep an eye on whether these stablecoins are trading at a premium or discount relative to the US dollar, as this can reveal underlying demand dynamics.

2. NEW YORK (AP) Bitcoin has hit an all-time high less than two years after the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX severely damaged faith in digital currencies and sent prices plunging. The world s largest cryptocurrency jumped 4% this week and briefly surpassed $68,800 Tuesday, according to CoinMarketCap. That s just above bitcoin sRetail Investor Participation: A Double-Edged Sword

Retail investors have historically played a vital role in driving Bitcoin’s price surges. Bitcoin s (BTC) price is only 14% below its all-time high at the moment, and favorable conditions have produced targets of over $80,000 in the coming weeks.Yet, a new all-time high (ATH) ofTheir enthusiastic participation can create significant buying pressure, leading to parabolic rallies.However, this enthusiasm can also be a double-edged sword. The Bitcoin price has nearly broken out from a long-term descending parallel channel. A breakout from it will confirm that the fifth and final wave toward a new all-time high has started. The first target for the high is between $85,100 and $88,600, while the second is $107,200.When the market becomes overly saturated with retail investors, it can signal a potential top.This happens because retail investors, often driven by FOMO (fear of missing out), tend to enter the market late in the cycle, near the peak of the price curve.

The presence of excessive retail participation suggests that the market might be overheated.Smart money, or sophisticated institutional investors, often use this heightened retail interest as an opportunity to take profits.This profit-taking can then trigger a market correction, preventing Bitcoin from reaching a new all-time high and potentially leading to a significant price decline.

Gauging Retail Sentiment

Monitoring retail sentiment involves looking at various indicators to assess the degree of their involvement.Some key metrics include:

Google Trends: Spikes in searches for terms like ""Bitcoin,"" ""cryptocurrency,"" and ""how to buy Bitcoin"" often correlate with increased retail interest.
Social Media Sentiment: Monitoring social media platforms like Twitter and Reddit can offer insights into the prevailing sentiment among retail investors.
Exchange Data: Analyzing the size of trades on cryptocurrency exchanges can provide clues about the proportion of retail versus institutional participation.Smaller trade sizes are typically indicative of retail activity.

3.Skeptical BTC Derivatives Markets: A Reality Check

Derivatives markets, particularly Bitcoin futures and options, provide another layer of insight into market sentiment. This article looks at some of the top three reasons it may surge to a new all-time high this year. Bitcoin supply in exchanges is falling The first main bullish aspect is that the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has tumbled to 1.42 million, the lowest level in over six years.A healthy derivatives market is characterized by a balanced mix of bullish and bearish positions.However, if the derivatives market reveals a prevalent skepticism or bearish bias, it can signal that traders are not confident in Bitcoin’s ability to reach a new all-time high.

Skeptical derivatives markets can manifest in several ways. Bitcoin is trading at $104,231, with accumulation at a 4-month high, but resistance at $106,265 could block its path to a new ATH. Over $3.13 billion in BTC was bought last week, yet rising Liveliness suggests long-term holders may be selling into the rally. A failure to breach $106,265 could sendFor instance, a higher put/call ratio suggests that more traders are buying put options (bets that the price will fall) than call options (bets that the price will rise). Bitcoin is attempting to breach the critical barrier at $106,000, aiming to rally and set a new all-time high (ATH). Despite recent volatility, BTC s bullish momentum remains strong, and the cryptocurrency appears to be repeating historical patterns observed during prior market cycles.Similarly, a negative funding rate on perpetual futures contracts indicates that short positions are paying long positions, revealing a bearish sentiment in the market.These indicators can act as a reality check, suggesting that underlying caution might prevent Bitcoin from sustaining a rally towards a new ATH.

Analyzing Derivatives Data

Evaluating the derivatives market involves scrutinizing specific data points that offer clues about prevailing sentiment. If bitcoin approaches the upper band at $94,900, it may highlight when periods of intense demand are slowing down, and where price is high enough for many existing holders to ramp up their sellLook at these indicators:

Put/Call Ratio: A higher put/call ratio often indicates bearish sentiment as more traders are hedging against potential downside.
Funding Rates: Negative funding rates in perpetual futures contracts signal that short positions are dominant.
Open Interest: Declining open interest in futures and options contracts can indicate a lack of conviction in either direction.

Other Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Price

Beyond the three key signs detailed above, a myriad of additional factors can influence Bitcoin's price trajectory, either supporting or hindering its path to a new all-time high. Gold s inability to maintain its bullish momentum after reaching an all-time high of $3,500 on April 22 was also seen as significant for Bitcoin s status as an independent asset class.Understanding these interconnected elements provides a more comprehensive perspective on the digital asset's potential.

Macroeconomic Conditions

Macroeconomic factors exert a significant influence on Bitcoin, just like any other asset.Inflation rates, interest rate decisions by central banks, and overall economic growth can shape investor sentiment toward Bitcoin.During periods of high inflation, Bitcoin is often viewed as a hedge against currency devaluation.Conversely, rising interest rates can diminish Bitcoin's appeal as investors may prefer lower-risk assets that offer higher yields.

For instance, if central banks aggressively raise interest rates to combat inflation, investors might move away from speculative assets like Bitcoin toward government bonds or other fixed-income instruments. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was pushing higher toward $100,000 on Wednesday, after falling back below that level in the past few days. It traded at around $99,380 on Wednesday afternoon and is still moreA stable or growing economy generally fosters a more risk-on environment, potentially benefiting Bitcoin.Conversely, economic recessions tend to trigger risk aversion, which can negatively impact Bitcoin's price.

Regulatory Developments

Regulatory clarity or uncertainty can have a profound impact on Bitcoin's price. Bitcoin s (BTC) price recorded a new all-time high of $111,970 on May 22. However, BTC price retraced shortly after to trade at $110,700 at the time of writing. Despite the correction, there arePositive regulatory developments, such as the approval of Bitcoin ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) or clear guidelines on cryptocurrency taxation, can boost investor confidence and encourage broader adoption.Conversely, negative regulatory actions, such as outright bans or stringent restrictions, can stifle growth and lead to price declines.

Recent regulatory developments across different jurisdictions are crucial to monitor. According to a new analysis by Daniel Batten, managing partner at CH4 Capital and a renowned Bitcoin ESG researcher, the BTC network has achieved three remarkable new all-time highs. However, these milestones are not related to its price, which has yet to surpass the previous peak of $69,000.For example, if the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves a spot Bitcoin ETF, it could unlock significant institutional capital, potentially driving the price higher.However, if a major economy were to ban Bitcoin mining or trading, it could send shockwaves through the market, leading to a significant correction.

Institutional Adoption

Institutional investors, including hedge funds, pension funds, and corporate treasuries, play an increasingly significant role in the Bitcoin market. Bitcoin Price climbs above $95K, reclaiming key support levels. Explore the data and signals fuelling bullish sentiment and a possible new all-time high.Their participation can bring substantial capital, increased liquidity, and greater validation to the asset class. The Bitcoin price reached a 79-day high on Oct. 16. Can BTC sustain its increase toward an all-time high? Bitcoin s price has been correcting since its all-time high of $73,77 on March 14. The downward movement culminated with a low of $49,000 on Aug. 5. The price has moved upward since, increasing by nearly 40%.Increased institutional adoption often signals a maturing market, which can enhance Bitcoin's long-term stability and growth prospects.

Keeping track of institutional holdings, announcements of Bitcoin purchases by corporations, and the launch of new institutional-grade investment products can provide insights into the level of institutional interest. - Crypto XRP reaches all-time high above $3. It now has the $4-plus range in its sights. (MarketWatch) - Bitcoin bounce soothes bear-market fears. But beware if it falls below $92,000. (MarketWatch)For example, if a major company announces that it is holding a portion of its treasury reserves in Bitcoin, it can catalyze further institutional interest and positive price action.

Technological Advancements

Technological innovations within the Bitcoin ecosystem can also influence its price. This monumental achievement, having set a previous all-time high of about $69,000 in November of 2025, showcases bitcoin s ability to grow in an economic environment very different from the oneDevelopments such as the Lightning Network, which aims to improve Bitcoin's scalability and transaction speed, can enhance its utility and attractiveness. Bitcoin (BTC) broke out above $100,000 for the first time since February. The BTC price has increased 35% since April 7 without much retracement. Can Bitcoin sustain its upward movement and reach a new all-time high? The Bitcoin (BTC) price fell over 30% three months after its all-time high, reaching a low of $74,434 in April.Similarly, advancements in privacy technologies and smart contract capabilities on Bitcoin can attract new users and developers, potentially boosting demand.

Monitoring the progress of these technological advancements is vital.If the Lightning Network, for example, significantly reduces transaction fees and confirmation times, it could make Bitcoin more viable for everyday transactions, increasing its real-world utility and potentially driving up its price.

Historical Patterns and Market Cycles

Bitcoin's price history is marked by distinct cycles of boom and bust, often influenced by its supply halving events.These events, which occur approximately every four years, reduce the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, effectively cutting the supply in half.Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been followed by significant price rallies, as reduced supply coupled with steady or increasing demand drives prices higher.

Understanding these historical patterns can provide valuable context for assessing Bitcoin's current position. Why did Bitcoin Break its All Time High on Febru. Many believe that Cyprus's financial crisis helped create new demand for bitcoins. When Will Bitcoin Hit a New All Time High Again? Nobody knows for sure! One trend to notice is that Bitcoin's supply halving have often preceded its historic runsFor instance, if Bitcoin is currently in a bear market following a halving event, it may suggest that the market is consolidating before another potential upswing.Recognizing these cyclical trends can help investors manage their expectations and make more informed decisions.

The Halving Effect

Bitcoin halvings have often been followed by periods of substantial price appreciation.This is because:

Reduced Supply: The rate at which new Bitcoins are created is cut in half, reducing the supply available on the market.
Increased Scarcity: The perceived scarcity of Bitcoin increases, making it more attractive to investors.
Demand Remains Constant or Increases: If demand remains constant or increases while supply decreases, the price tends to rise.

Volatility and Risk Management

Bitcoin is known for its high volatility, making risk management a critical aspect of investing in this asset.Understanding the factors that contribute to volatility and implementing appropriate risk management strategies can help investors protect their capital and navigate the market more effectively.

Understanding Volatility

Volatility can be influenced by several factors:

Market Sentiment: News events, social media trends, and overall market sentiment can lead to sudden price swings.
Liquidity: Lower liquidity can amplify price movements, making Bitcoin more susceptible to large swings.
Leverage: The use of leverage in trading can magnify both gains and losses, increasing volatility.

Risk Management Strategies

Effective risk management strategies include:

Diversification: Spreading investments across multiple asset classes can reduce the impact of Bitcoin's volatility on an overall portfolio.
Stop-Loss Orders: Setting stop-loss orders can limit potential losses by automatically selling Bitcoin if it falls below a certain price.
Position Sizing: Carefully sizing positions based on risk tolerance can help manage potential losses.

When Might Bitcoin Hit a New All-Time High?

Predicting the exact timing of a new all-time high for Bitcoin is inherently challenging due to the numerous factors that can influence its price.However, by monitoring key indicators and understanding market dynamics, investors can improve their chances of identifying potential opportunities.

Some analysts suggest that Bitcoin could reach new highs in the near future, citing favorable conditions such as decreasing Bitcoin supply on exchanges and growing institutional adoption.Conversely, others caution that Bitcoin may need more time to consolidate before another significant rally, pointing to indicators such as skeptical derivatives markets and regulatory uncertainties.

Potential Catalysts

Several potential catalysts could trigger a new all-time high for Bitcoin:

Regulatory Clarity: Clear and favorable regulations in major economies could attract more institutional investors.
Bitcoin ETF Approval: The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States could unlock significant capital.
Technological Advancements: Significant improvements to Bitcoin's scalability and usability could drive adoption.

Conclusion: Navigating the Path to a New Bitcoin Peak

While Bitcoin's journey toward a new all-time high remains uncertain, understanding the key indicators and market dynamics can empower investors to make more informed decisions.The three signs discussed – China-focused stablecoin data, retail investor participation, and skeptical BTC derivatives markets – provide valuable insights into the potential roadblocks that Bitcoin faces.

Despite recent price fluctuations, Bitcoin’s fundamental attributes, such as its limited supply and decentralized nature, continue to attract investors.The cryptocurrency's history is filled with significant price corrections followed by remarkable recoveries, showing that Bitcoin's resilience and long-term potential cannot be underestimated.The signs suggesting Bitcoin is not ready for a new ATH provide a balanced perspective, encouraging caution and strategic planning.

Ultimately, success in the Bitcoin market requires a combination of diligent research, careful risk management, and a long-term perspective.By monitoring these key indicators, understanding market cycles, and staying informed about macroeconomic and regulatory developments, investors can navigate the path to a new Bitcoin peak with greater confidence.

Key Takeaways:

China-focused stablecoin data can indicate shifts in buying pressure from Chinese investors.
Excessive retail investor participation may signal a market top.
Skeptical BTC derivatives markets can reveal underlying caution.
Macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and institutional adoption all play significant roles.
Effective risk management is crucial for navigating Bitcoin's volatility.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.Always conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.