$13.6B IN BITCOIN OPTIONS EXPIRE FRIDAY — CAN BULLS PUSH BTC PRICE TO $100K?

Last updated: June 19, 2025, 18:47 | Written by: Michael Saylor

Get ready for a potentially wild ride in the Bitcoin market! This event provides bulls with a pivotal opportunity to push Bitcoin s price above $100,000, making it crucial to assess the impact of call (buy) and put (sell) options set to expire on Nov. 29. The S P 500 has struggled to maintain levels above 6,000 over the past three weeks, signaling growing investor caution.All eyes are on the upcoming Friday, as a staggering $13.6 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire. The crypto market is set for potential volatility as approximately $3.7 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today. With Bitcoin options totaling $3.1 billion in notional value and Ethereum options accounting for $588 million, traders are eyeing the expiration for its potential impact on prices. Crypto Markets to See $3.7This marks the largest monthly options expiry of 2025, presenting a pivotal moment for the direction of BTC's price.The big question on everyone's mind: can Bitcoin bulls seize this opportunity to propel the price to the coveted $100,000 mark?This event could act as a major catalyst, or it could simply fade into market noise.We'll delve into the factors at play, exploring the potential impact of this massive expiry on Bitcoin's price action in Q2 2025.

Considering that less than 2% of Bitcoin put options are targeting $100,000 or higher, the expiry provides an opportunity for the bulls to influence the market.We will examine the dynamics between call and put options, focusing on how their interplay will shape the outcome and whether the bulls can overcome the current 'max pain' scenario for options holders.The coming days could prove decisive for Bitcoin's short-term trajectory. As Bitcoin approaches the upcoming $16.5B options expiry, all eyes are on whether bulls can reclaim $90K or if expiry-induced volatility will drive a temporary pullback. With heavy OI, mixed signals, and thin volume, the next 48 hours could prove decisive for BTC s trend in Q2 2025.Let's dive in!

Understanding Bitcoin Options Expiry: A Primer

Before we delve into the potential impact of the expiry on Friday, let's establish a foundation of understanding regarding Bitcoin options and their expiry process.

What are Bitcoin Options?

Bitcoin options are contracts that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call option) or sell (put option) Bitcoin at a specified price (strike price) on or before a specific date (expiry date). BTCUSD Bitcoin $13.6B in Bitcoin options expire Friday Can bulls push BTC price to $100K? Can this week's $13.6 billion Bitcoin options expiry trigger a BTC price rally to $100,000 and beyond?Traders use them for a variety of reasons, including:

Speculation: Betting on the future price movement of Bitcoin.
Hedging: Protecting against potential losses in a Bitcoin portfolio.
Income generation: Earning premiums by selling options.

How Does Options Expiry Work?

On the expiry date, options are either exercised (if they are ""in the money,"" meaning they would be profitable to exercise) or they expire worthless (if they are ""out of the money"").The interplay between exercised and expired options can significantly influence the underlying asset's price.

The ""Max Pain"" Theory:

A popular theory surrounding options expiry is the ""max pain"" theory.This suggests that the price of the underlying asset tends to gravitate towards the strike price with the most open interest, as this is where the maximum number of option buyers will experience losses.In our current situation, Bitcoin is hovering near the max pain price, indicating potential downward pressure until expiry.

The $13.6 Billion Question: Will the Bulls Prevail?

The sheer magnitude of the $13.6 billion Bitcoin options expiry makes it a significant event.But does a large expiry automatically translate into a price surge?The answer is complex and depends on a number of factors.

Analyzing the Open Interest and Strike Prices

One crucial element is the distribution of open interest across various strike prices.Open interest represents the total number of outstanding options contracts.Analyzing where the majority of open interest lies, especially for call options above the current price, can provide insights into the potential for a bullish move.

The snippets mention that less than 2% of BTC put options target $100,000 or higher.This alone doesn't guarantee a price surge to that level. Bitcoin bulls aim to push BTC above $110,000 by May 30 to capitalize on $4.8 billion in call options. Spot BTC ETF inflows and weak put positioning give bulls a strong edge in the monthly expiry.However, if there's a substantial concentration of call options with strike prices close to or above the current level, it could incentivize market makers to push the price higher to realize profits.

On the other hand, a large concentration of put options below the current price could exert downward pressure. Bitcoin is set for its largest monthly options expiry of 2025, with a total exposure of $13.6 billion. Less than 2% of BTC put options target $100K or higher This event provides bulls with a $13.6B in Bitcoin options expire Friday Can bulls push BTC price to $100K?Read moreThe balance between call and put open interest is key to determining the overall sentiment and potential direction.

The Role of Market Makers and Hedging

Market makers play a critical role in options markets.They provide liquidity by buying and selling options, and they often hedge their positions by trading the underlying asset (Bitcoin).As the expiry date approaches, market makers may adjust their hedging positions, which can amplify price movements.

For instance, if a market maker has sold a large number of call options, they might need to buy Bitcoin to hedge their exposure.This buying pressure could contribute to a price increase.Conversely, if they've sold a large number of put options, they might need to sell Bitcoin to hedge, potentially leading to a price decrease.

Spot Market Dynamics and ETF Inflows

The performance of the spot market (where Bitcoin is directly traded) also influences options expiry dynamics.Positive news, strong spot ETF inflows, or increased institutional adoption can all contribute to a bullish sentiment and increase the likelihood of call options being exercised.

Recent spot Bitcoin ETF inflows suggest the sentiment in the broader market.These inflows provide fuel for a potential price surge, which in turn, could make higher strike price call options more attractive.

Potential Scenarios: Navigating the Post-Expiry Landscape

Predicting the exact outcome of the $13.6 billion Bitcoin options expiry is inherently difficult. Bitcoin is set for its largest monthly options expiry of 2025, with a total exposure of $13.6 billion. This event provides bulls with a pivotal opportunity to push Bitcoin s (BTC) price aboveHowever, we can explore several potential scenarios and their implications for the market.

Bullish Scenario: A Push Towards $100K
- Conditions:
  - A significant concentration of call options with strike prices above the current price.
  - Strong spot market momentum and positive news flow.
  - Market makers actively hedging short call positions.
  - Sustained Bitcoin ETF inflows
- Outcome: Increased buying pressure on Bitcoin, potentially triggering a short squeeze (where short sellers are forced to cover their positions), leading to a rapid price increase towards and potentially beyond $100,000.
- Likelihood: Moderate. Can this week's $13.6 billion Bitcoin options expiry trigger a BTC price rally to $100,000 and beyond? Continue reading $13.6B in Bitcoin options expire Friday - Can bulls push BTC pRequires a confluence of positive factors.
Neutral Scenario: Sideways Trading and Consolidation
- Conditions:
  - A relatively balanced distribution of call and put open interest.
  - Uncertainty in the broader market and a lack of clear catalysts.
  - Market makers taking a neutral stance.
- Outcome: Bitcoin's price remains range-bound, with limited movement in either direction. Bitcoin is set for its largest monthly options expiry of 2025, with a total exposure of $13.6 billion. Less than 2% of BTC put options target $100K or higherThis event provides bulls with a pivotal opportunity to push Bitcoin s BINANCE:BTCUSD price above $100,000, making it crucial to assess the imMarket participants await further clarity before committing to a specific direction.
- Likelihood: Relatively High. This situation incentivizes bears to drive Bitcoin below $84,000, which would increase the value of active put options to $2.6 billion. Bitcoin bulls will have the edge if BTC price passes $90,000. Below are five probable scenarios based on current price trends. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on open interest imbalances butIf market sentiment remains balanced.
Bearish Scenario: A Temporary Pullback
- Conditions:
  - A significant concentration of put options with strike prices below the current price.
  - Negative news or regulatory concerns.
  - Market makers actively hedging short put positions.
  - Bitcoin breaking through key support levels.
- Outcome: Increased selling pressure on Bitcoin, potentially leading to a price correction.The severity of the pullback would depend on the strength of the bearish sentiment and the level of support.
- Likelihood: Moderate. Bitcoin is set for its largest monthly options expiry of 2025, with a total exposure of $13.6 billion. Less than 2% of BTC put options target $100K or higher. This event provides bulls with a pivotal opportunity to push Bitcoin s (BTC) price above $100,000, making it crucial to assess the impact of call (buy) and put (sell) options set to expire on Nov. 29.Depending on overall market sentiment.

Key Factors to Watch in the Lead-Up to Expiry

In the days leading up to the $13.6 billion Bitcoin options expiry, several factors will provide clues about the potential outcome.Keep a close eye on these indicators:

Bitcoin's price action: Monitor whether Bitcoin is breaking through key resistance or support levels.
Open interest changes: Track the changes in open interest at different strike prices.A significant increase in call open interest at higher strike prices could signal bullish sentiment.
Spot market volume: Increased trading volume in the spot market can indicate stronger conviction among traders.
News and sentiment: Stay informed about any news or developments that could impact market sentiment.
Funding rates: Check Bitcoin perpetual swaps funding rates.High positive funding rates may indicate an overheated market ripe for correction.

How to Trade Bitcoin Options Expiry: Strategies and Considerations

Trading around Bitcoin options expiry can be risky, but also potentially rewarding. Bitcoin price jumped to $17,500 on Jan. 11, driving it to its highest level in three weeks.The price move gave bulls control of the $275 million BTC weekly options expiry on Jan. 13, as bears hadHere are some strategies and considerations for traders:

Straddles and Strangles: If you anticipate high volatility but are unsure of the direction, consider using a straddle (buying both a call and a put option with the same strike price) or a strangle (buying a call and a put option with different strike prices).
Directional Plays: If you have a strong conviction about the direction of Bitcoin's price, you can buy call options (if you're bullish) or put options (if you're bearish).
Iron Condors: An iron condor is a neutral strategy designed to profit from low volatility.It involves selling both a call and a put option with strike prices outside the current price range.
Risk Management: Always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. This Sam Altman-Backed Nuclear Power Stock Just Got JanuBitcoin options trading can be highly leveraged, so it's crucial to manage your risk carefully.

Important Considerations:

Volatility: Options prices are highly sensitive to volatility. Can this week s $13.6 billion Bitcoin options expiry trigger a BTC price rally to $100,000 and beyond?Increased volatility can significantly impact the value of options contracts.
Time Decay: Options lose value as they approach their expiry date due to time decay (theta).
Liquidity: Ensure that the options you're trading have sufficient liquidity to avoid slippage.

Beyond $100K: What Happens Next?

Let's assume the bulls are successful and Bitcoin manages to break through the $100,000 barrier after the options expiry. Around 26,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, May 9, and they have a notional value of roughly $2.57 billion. This week s event is virtually identical to last week s expiry event, as derivatives crypto trading has remained muted. This may change now, though, as spot markets are ripping higher. Bitcoin Options ExpiryWhat's next? Binance Sparks Explosive Rally in Newly Launched DeFi Altcoin With Surprise Support for TradingWhere could Bitcoin realistically go?

Potential Resistance Levels

Breaking $100,000 is a significant psychological barrier, but it's not the end of the road.Bitcoin will likely encounter further resistance at higher price levels.Potential resistance points could include:

$110,000 - $120,000: These levels could act as intermediate resistance points, requiring sustained buying pressure to overcome.
All-Time Highs: Overcoming the previous all-time high would confirm a strong bullish trend and could attract further institutional investment.

Long-Term Outlook

The long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive, driven by factors such as increasing institutional adoption, limited supply, and its role as a hedge against inflation.However, it's important to remember that Bitcoin is still a relatively young asset and is subject to significant volatility.

The potential impact of the $13.6 billion Bitcoin options expiry, in addition to spot ETF inflows and global economic conditions, can affect long-term projections. Bitcoin is set for its largest options expiry of 2025, with a total exposure of $13.6 billion. Less than 2% of BTC put options target a price of $100K or higher. This significant event provides a crucial opportunity for bulls to push Bitcoin s price above $100,000. RecentIf the bulls can successfully push Bitcoin towards $100K or beyond, it would bolster the case for further price appreciation in the long run.

The Impact of Crypto Derivatives Exchange on the BTC Market

Crypto derivatives exchanges such as Deribit are important players in this landscape.One exchange holds roughly $3.6 billion in BTC options, meaning that market fluctuations will directly influence their financial performance. $13.6B in Bitcoin options expire Friday Can bulls push BTC price to $100K? Less than 2% of BTC put options target $100K or higher This event provides bullsMonitoring such exchanges around the expiry window could also offer insight into the wider sentiment.A failure to successfully push BTC price upwards could trigger significant financial headwinds for these exchanges.

Conclusion: A Critical Juncture for Bitcoin

The upcoming $13.6 billion Bitcoin options expiry represents a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency market.Whether the bulls can capitalize on this opportunity to propel Bitcoin towards $100,000 depends on a complex interplay of factors, including open interest distribution, market sentiment, spot market dynamics, and the actions of market makers.

While less than 2% of put options are targeting $100K or higher, the potential for volatility remains high.Traders should approach this event with caution, employing appropriate risk management strategies and closely monitoring market developments.

Key Takeaways:

The $13.6 billion Bitcoin options expiry is the largest monthly expiry of 2025.
The outcome will depend on the balance between call and put open interest, spot market dynamics, and market maker activity.
Potential scenarios range from a bullish surge towards $100,000 to a temporary pullback.
Traders should use risk management strategies and monitor key indicators in the lead-up to expiry.

Ultimately, the $13.6 billion Bitcoin options expiry could serve as a catalyst for the next major move in Bitcoin's price.Whether that move is upwards or downwards remains to be seen. From cointelegraph by Marcel Pechman Bitcoin is set for its largest monthly options expiry of 2025, with a total exposure of $13.6 billion. Less than 2%Prepare yourself for some increased volatility and carefully analyze the market signals to make informed trading decisions. Can this week s $13.6 billion Bitcoin options expiry trigger a BTC price rally to $100,000 and beyond? Continue reading $13.6B inThis event serves as a crucial test for the strength of the current Bitcoin bull market, and its outcome will likely have lasting implications for the cryptocurrency landscape.