2 ON-CHAIN METRICS SUGGEST BITCOIN AT ITS BEST MOMENT TO BUY

Last updated: June 19, 2025, 19:27 | Written by: Olaf Carlson-Wee

Is now the opportune time to dive into Bitcoin? Orange and red dots on the price chart, for example, have traditionally been ideal times to sell Bitcoin since those colors suggest that Bitcoin is overbought in contrast to its price over theThe volatile world of cryptocurrency is never short on opinions, and recent market activity has sparked a fresh wave of debate.While some analysts are sounding the alarm, pointing to potential bearish signals, others are boldly proclaiming this moment as the ""best time to buy"" Bitcoin. Analyst and founder of the Capriole Investments fund Charles Edwards said multiple on-chain metrics suggest that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have a lot further to run in this bull market.This contrasting outlook stems from the ever-evolving nature of the crypto market, where sentiment can shift in the blink of an eye, and fortunes can be made (or lost) just as quickly. Buy, sell, and store hundreds of cryptocurrencies From Bitcoin to Dogecoin, we make it easy to buy and sell cryptocurrency. Protect your crypto with best in class cold storage.Bitcoin's current price, hovering around $64,230, places it at a potentially critical juncture. Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI) The BCMI provides a clear snapshot of Bitcoin market health, combining essential on-chain and sentiment metrics with precise weightings: MVRV (valuation metric): 30% / (MIN: 0.5, MAX: 4.0) NUPL (investor unrealized profit/loss): 25% / (MIN: -0.2, MAX: 0.75) SOPR (profit-taking ratio): 25% / (MIN: 0.8, MAX: 1.3) Fear Greed (market sentiment): 20% / (MINDips in price, while unsettling, are not unusual during bull runs and can present strategic entry points for savvy investors.Understanding the underlying dynamics, especially on-chain metrics, becomes crucial in navigating this complex landscape. 22 subscribers in the VirtualCoinCap community. Real-time Cryptocurrency Market Prices, Charts, Blockchain Cryptocurrency News, PortfolioThis article will delve into two key on-chain indicators that suggest Bitcoin may indeed be presenting a compelling buying opportunity, exploring the data, the analysis, and what it all means for you as a potential investor.

Understanding On-Chain Analysis for Bitcoin

Before diving into the specific metrics, let's define what on-chain analysis is and why it's so important. According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post published today, Bitcoin (BTC) may still be undervalued based on several on-chain metrics. Crypto on-chain analyst BorisVest explained that data suggests bullish sentiment remains intact for the leading cryptocurrency. On-Chain Metrics Suggest Bitcoin Still Undervalued. BorisVest pointed to two key onUnlike traditional financial markets where data can be opaque and difficult to access, blockchain networks like Bitcoin offer a transparent, auditable record of every transaction.On-chain analysis involves examining this data—transactions, wallet activity, supply distribution—to gain insights into market behavior and potential future price movements. This is the best moment to buy Bitcoin, pseudonymous trader Mister Crypto told his 94,100 X followers in an April 23 post on X. Cointelegraph Bitcoin s OI weighted funding rate which represents the cost of holding Bitcoin futures positions breached positive territory on April 24 after 24-hours in the negative zone, posting 0.It provides a fundamental view, looking past the noise of market sentiment and focusing on the actual activity taking place on the blockchain. Bitcoin is the best-performing asset compared to the level of risk that it carries in early 2025. Source: CaseBitcoin. On-Chain Metrics Suggest Bitcoin Price Volatility. Data is critical when making investment decisions. The more data we have, the more comprehensive view we have of the situation, and the better informed we are.This data-driven approach is particularly valuable in the often-speculative world of crypto, where rumors and hype can heavily influence price.

Why On-Chain Metrics Matter

Transparency: Blockchain data is publicly available and verifiable, reducing the risk of manipulation.
Real-Time Insights: On-chain metrics provide a near real-time view of market activity, allowing investors to react quickly to changing conditions.
Data-Driven Decisions: By analyzing on-chain data, investors can make more informed decisions based on factual information rather than speculation.

The Two Key On-Chain Metrics Signaling a Buy Opportunity

Several on-chain indicators can provide clues about Bitcoin's market health and potential future direction. Is Now the Best Time to Buy Bitcoin? 🔍💡 On-chain data points to a golden opportunity for buying Bitcoin. 👉 2 on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin at its bestHowever, two metrics are particularly noteworthy in suggesting that now might be a favorable time to buy. Despite losing $6,000 in hours and $17,000 in several days, on-chain data suggests that the demand for bitcoin is still solid. The number of coins stored on exchanges and miners refusing to sell indicates that the cryptocurrency could resume its bull run shortly.Let's explore these in detail:

1. O pre o do Bitcoin de US$64.230 no momento da publica o. Fonte: CoinMarketCap. A taxa ponderada de financiamento do Bitcoin que representa o custo de manter posi es futuras de Bitcoin ultrapassou o territ rio positivo em 24 de abril ap s 24 horas na zona negativa, registrando 0,0093%, de acordo com dados do CoinGlass.Realized Cap HODL Waves

Realized Cap HODL Waves is a powerful on-chain indicator that provides a nuanced view of Bitcoin's supply distribution based on the age of the coins.It weighs the basic HODL Waves indicator by realized price.HODL Waves themselves represent the distribution of Bitcoin supply across different age bands, showing how long coins have been held in wallets.Each colored band represents a different age group, from newly mined coins to those held for several years.

The Realized Cap HODL Waves takes this concept a step further by weighting each age band by the realized price. 🎯 2 on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin at its best moment to buy ⛳ One crypto analyst says Bitcoin has just undergone one of the healthiest market resets he has seen in a long time.The realized price is the price at which each coin last moved on the blockchain.This weighting gives a more accurate representation of the economic value held by different cohorts of Bitcoin holders.

So, how does this indicator suggest a buying opportunity?A healthy bull market typically sees a redistribution of wealth from older coins (held by long-term holders) to newer coins (held by newer buyers). 2 on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin at its best moment to buy One crypto analyst says Bitcoin s just undergone one of the healthiest market resets he has seen in a long time.When the percentage held by older cohorts diminishes and newer cohorts increase, it suggests new capital is entering the market. Despite Bitcoin s impressive performance, on-chain metrics suggest the market structure remains stable and not overstretched, providing room for potential further uptrends. Google Trends data shows retail interest in Bitcoin, how to buy crypto, and altcoins in the US is higher than last year but not to the extent manyIf the distribution *resets*, with older cohorts starting to accumulate again, it can indicate a healthy market correction and a potential bottoming out, presenting a buying opportunity.When short-term holders begin to buy BTC, it can be a bullish sign. Bitcoin traders are currently buying the dip on the Kraken crypto exchange, according to a new interview with its head of derivatives, Alexia Theodorou. Rom năHistorically, periods where short-term holders increase their holdings have often preceded price rallies.

How to Interpret Realized Cap HODL Waves

Dominance of Older Waves: A large percentage of coins held in older waves (e.g., 1-year+ and 2-year+ bands) indicates strong long-term holding behavior and a potential supply squeeze.
Increase in Newer Waves: An increase in the percentage held by newer waves (e.g., < 1-month band) can signal new capital entering the market.
Resetting Distribution: A ""reset"" in the distribution, where older cohorts start to accumulate again after a period of decline, may indicate a bottoming-out process.

2. 2 On-Chain Indicators: Short-Term Holders Buy BTC. The first on-chain indicator that suggests the start of a matur e bull market is Realized Cap HODL Waves. This indicator weighs the basic HODL Waves indicator by realized price. HODL Waves, on the other hand, is the set of all active supply age bands, or HODL waves. Each colored bar shows theBitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI)

The Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI) is a composite index that combines several key on-chain and sentiment metrics to provide a comprehensive snapshot of Bitcoin's market health.The BCMI attempts to distill the complex interplay of various indicators into a single, easily understandable score. This is the best moment to buy Bitcoin, pseudonymous trader Mister Crypto told his 94,100 X followers in an April 23 post on X. Bitcoin s price is $64,230 at the time of publicationIt can serve as a valuable tool for assessing overall market conditions and identifying potential buying or selling opportunities.

The BCMI typically incorporates the following metrics, each weighted according to its importance:

MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value): This valuation metric compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its realized capitalization.A high MVRV suggests the market is overvalued, while a low MVRV indicates undervaluation.
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): This metric measures the aggregate unrealized profit or loss of all Bitcoin holders.Positive NUPL indicates investors are in profit, while negative NUPL suggests they are in loss.
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio): This ratio compares the value of spent outputs to their creation value.A SOPR greater than 1 indicates that Bitcoin holders are selling at a profit, while a SOPR less than 1 suggests they are selling at a loss.
Fear & Greed Index: This sentiment indicator measures the overall market sentiment, ranging from extreme fear to extreme greed.

Interpreting the Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI)

Each component of the BCMI provides valuable insights, and understanding how they are weighted is crucial for interpreting the overall index.

High BCMI Value: A high BCMI score suggests that Bitcoin is potentially overvalued and that market sentiment is overly optimistic.This may indicate a higher risk of a correction.
Low BCMI Value: A low BCMI score suggests that Bitcoin is potentially undervalued and that market sentiment is overly pessimistic. A combination of technical indicators, on-chain data, and investor sentiment suggest that Bitcoin (BTC) may be heading toward surpassing its previous all-time high of $69,000, with the potential for even more substantial gains in 2025. Here are five key metrics that support Bitcoin s upward momentum. 1.This may indicate a potential buying opportunity.
Trend Analysis: Observing the trend of the BCMI over time is also important.A rising BCMI indicates increasing optimism, while a falling BCMI suggests increasing pessimism.

Example of BCMI Weights

As cited in initial snippets the weights are as follows:

MVRV (valuation metric): 30% / (MIN: 0.5, MAX: 4.0)
NUPL (investor unrealized profit/loss): 25% / (MIN: -0.2, MAX: 0.75)
SOPR (profit-taking ratio): 25% / (MIN: 0.8, MAX: 1.3)
Fear Greed (market sentiment): 20% / (MIN

Diving Deeper: Other Supporting Factors

While the Realized Cap HODL Waves and the BCMI are compelling indicators, it's crucial to consider other factors that may support a bullish outlook on Bitcoin. New data from the market intelligence firm Glassnode suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) could be nearing an early bear market. In a new thread on the social media platform X, Glassnode says that the crypto king is flashing signs that historically predate its entering into a bearish phase. According to theThese include:

Bitcoin's Historical Performance

Bitcoin has historically proven to be a resilient asset, experiencing significant price appreciation over the long term, despite numerous corrections and bear markets. 即时翻译文本完整的文档文件。为个人和团队提供准确的翻译。每天有数百万人使用DeepL进行翻译。Reviewing past performance can provide context and a sense of perspective during periods of uncertainty.

Institutional Adoption

Increased institutional adoption of Bitcoin is a significant tailwind. Recent Posts. Blackstone targets new European markets in global wealth push By Reuters; India s factory growth accelerates in October, PMI shows By ReutersCompanies like MicroStrategy have adopted Bitcoin as a primary reserve asset, and more traditional financial institutions are offering Bitcoin-related products and services.This influx of institutional capital can provide a more stable and sustainable foundation for Bitcoin's price.

The Halving Cycle

Bitcoin's halving, which occurs approximately every four years, reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is mined, effectively decreasing the supply.Historically, halvings have been followed by significant price increases, as the reduced supply puts upward pressure on demand.

Analyst Sentiment

While on-chain data provides a more objective view, it's also worth considering the sentiment of experienced analysts. Many on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin s price hasn t peaked yet, which indicates potential for growth in the broader market. Analysts at 21Shares, a crypto asset manager, emphasize the importance of on-chain analysis. This method directly examines data from blockchain networks and offers valuable insights into market trends andSome analysts, like Mister Crypto, have publicly stated that now is the ""best moment to buy"" Bitcoin, based on their analysis of market conditions.These opinions should be taken with a grain of salt, but they can provide valuable insights from seasoned market participants.

Potential Risks and Considerations

Investing in Bitcoin always carries risks, and it's essential to be aware of the potential downsides before making any decisions. The metrics suggest that Bitcoin is unlikely to be overvalued at current levels, and its price action is developing steadily without significant anomalies or sharp jumps. 6711 Total views 13Some of the key risks include:

Market Volatility

Bitcoin is known for its volatility, and prices can fluctuate dramatically in short periods. MicroStrategy has by far the largest Bitcoin portfolio held by any publicly-traded company. The business analytics platform has adopted Bitcoin as its primary reserve asset, aggressively buying the cryptocurrency through 20. As of Aug, the company had 129,699 Bitcoin in its reserve, equivalent to just over $2.5 billion.This volatility can be unsettling for risk-averse investors.

Regulatory Uncertainty

The regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies is still evolving, and changes in regulations could negatively impact Bitcoin's price.

Security Risks

Bitcoin exchanges and wallets can be vulnerable to hacking and theft, potentially leading to significant losses for investors.

Potential Bear Market Onset

Some analysts believe we may be at the onset of a bear market. Bitcoin s latest price correction has the asset hovering around key support levels that could mean more doom for the market. CryptoQuant s analysts say the cryptocurrency has pierced a key level acting as resistance in this bull cycle, and on-chain metrics are not showing signs of a recovery soon.CryptoQuant has identified signals that suggest bitcoin may be entering a bearish phase. The most popular and trusted Bitcoin block explorer and crypto transaction search engine. Blockchain.com. Buy, sell, trade, hold. Self custody. Earn rewardsThis should always be a consideration when investing.

Actionable Advice: How to Approach Bitcoin Investment

If you're considering investing in Bitcoin, here's some practical advice to help you navigate the process:

Do Your Research: Don't rely solely on the opinions of others. En el momento de la publicaci n de este art culo, la puntuaci n MVRV de bitcoin es de 2.32, un 6.45% menos desde principios de abril, seg n los datos de LookIntoBitcoin. Una puntuaci n MVRV superior a 3.5 sugiere que el mercado est casi en su punto m ximo, mientras que una puntuaci n inferior a uno indica que ha tocado fondo.Conduct your own thorough research and understand the underlying technology and market dynamics.
Start Small: Begin with a small investment that you can afford to lose. Analysts at the market intelligence platform CryptoQuant have identified concerning signals from on-chain valuation metrics that suggest bitcoin (BTC) may be at the onset of a bear season. According to a CryptoQuant report, bitcoin s correction is not unusual in terms of magnitude because such dips have been witnessed in past bull runsAs you become more comfortable with the market, you can gradually increase your investment.
Diversify Your Portfolio: Don't put all your eggs in one basket. A crypto analyst has noted that Bitcoin Chain Metrics has just experienced one of the healthiest market resets he has witnessed in a long time. Bitcoin, which is currently priced at $63,996Diversify your investment portfolio across different asset classes to reduce risk.
Use a Reputable Exchange: Choose a reputable cryptocurrency exchange with strong security measures to protect your funds.
Store Your Bitcoin Securely: Consider storing your Bitcoin in a cold wallet or hardware wallet for enhanced security.
Stay Informed: Keep up to date with the latest news and developments in the cryptocurrency market.

Addressing Common Questions About Buying Bitcoin

Here are some common questions that potential Bitcoin investors often ask:

Q: How much should I invest in Bitcoin?

A: The amount you invest in Bitcoin should depend on your individual risk tolerance, financial goals, and investment horizon.It's generally recommended to invest only what you can afford to lose.

Q: Where can I buy Bitcoin?

A: You can buy Bitcoin on various cryptocurrency exchanges, such as Coinbase, Kraken, and Binance.

Q: What is a Bitcoin wallet?

A: A Bitcoin wallet is a digital wallet that allows you to store, send, and receive Bitcoin.There are different types of wallets, including software wallets, hardware wallets, and paper wallets.

Q: How do I secure my Bitcoin?

A: You can secure your Bitcoin by using a strong password, enabling two-factor authentication, and storing your Bitcoin in a cold wallet or hardware wallet.

Conclusion: Is Now Really the Best Time to Buy?

The question of whether ""2 on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin at its best moment to buy"" is complex and doesn't have a definitive yes or no answer. 2 on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin at its best moment to buy By CointelegraphThe Realized Cap HODL Waves and the Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI) do offer compelling evidence that Bitcoin may be presenting a favorable buying opportunity. 2 on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin at its best moment to buy 2 on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin at its best moment to buyA reset in the HODL Waves distribution, combined with an undervalued BCMI score, can signal a potential bottoming-out process.However, it's essential to remember that these are just indicators, not guarantees.Market volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and security risks remain significant factors to consider.Ultimately, the decision to invest in Bitcoin is a personal one that should be based on thorough research, a clear understanding of the risks involved, and your individual financial circumstances.Remember to do your own research (DYOR) and approach Bitcoin investment with caution.If, after careful consideration, you believe in the long-term potential of Bitcoin, now might be a strategic time to enter the market.Keep in mind that data is critical.The more data we have, the better informed we are when investing.Good luck!