20% OF BITCOIN HASHRATE COULD GO OFFLINE AFTER HALVING — GALAXY DIGITAL

Last updated: June 19, 2025, 23:00 | Written by: Ari Paul

20% Of Bitcoin Hashrate Could Go Offline After Halving — Galaxy Digital
20% Of Bitcoin Hashrate Could Go Offline After Halving — Galaxy Digital

The highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, slated for April, is poised to trigger a significant shift in the landscape of Bitcoin mining. According to Blockworks, Galaxy Digital analysts predict that up to 20% of network hash rate from eight mining machine models could go offline during the next bitcoin halving. The halving, scheduled fAccording to recent analysis by Galaxy Digital, a leading financial services and investment management firm in the digital asset space, up to 20% of Bitcoin's current hashrate could go offline following the halving. According to Blockworks, Galaxy Digital analysts predict that up to 20% of network hash rate from eight mining machine models could go offline during the next bitcoin halving. The halving, scheduled for April, will reduce per-block rewards for mining bitcoin from 6.25 bitcoin (BTC) to 3.125 BTC.This potential drop stems from the reduced block rewards, which will decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block, making older, less efficient mining rigs unprofitable.This event will essentially force miners to evaluate the economics of their operations, leading to a pruning of the network's computational power.

This isn't just a minor adjustment; it represents a substantial portion of the Bitcoin network's processing power potentially becoming inactive. About % of the whole computing energy of the Bitcoin community is not going to be worthwhile after the April halving. These evaluations led to Galaxy Digital. According to the examine, within the face of halving the reward, miners will decommission some services, leaving solely probably the most environment friendly gear in operation.This analysis highlights a critical moment for the Bitcoin ecosystem, forcing miners to adapt and potentially impacting block times and overall network security, at least temporarily. 11 subscribers in the btcwatch community. Community for Bitcoin enthusiastsThis article will delve deeper into the factors driving this potential hashrate decline, the specific mining equipment likely to be affected, and the implications for the future of Bitcoin mining.

Understanding the Bitcoin Halving and its Impact on Mining

The Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event that occurs approximately every four years, or every 210,000 blocks. GALAUSD Gala 20% of Bitcoin hash rate could go offline after halving: Galaxy Digital Most older mining rigs will struggle to break even after Bitcoin block rewards halve in April, prompting miners to take them offline, says Galaxy Research.This event reduces the block reward given to miners for successfully adding a new block to the blockchain by 50%.This mechanism is designed to control the supply of Bitcoin, ensuring that only 21 million Bitcoins will ever be created.While beneficial for long-term scarcity, the halving directly impacts miners' revenue.

The immediate effect of the halving is a reduction in the income that miners receive for their efforts.With the block reward slashed in half, miners need to either increase their efficiency, decrease their operating costs, or hope for a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin to maintain profitability.Those unable to adapt to these new realities are often forced to shut down their operations, leading to a decline in the overall network hashrate.

Why 20% of Hashrate Could Go Offline: The Economics of Mining

Galaxy Digital's analysis pinpoints that the potential 20% hashrate decline will largely stem from older, less efficient ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) miners becoming unprofitable. News that are related to the article cointelegraph.com: 20% of Bitcoin hash rate could go offline after halving: Galaxy Digital from papers and blogs.These older models consume more electricity per unit of hash produced compared to newer, more advanced machines.When the block reward is halved, the revenue generated by these older rigs may no longer cover their operational costs, primarily electricity.

To understand the economic pressure, consider this hypothetical scenario: A mining rig that was previously generating $10 per day in revenue might only generate $5 per day after the halving. Galaxy Digital analysts expect that up to 20% of network hash rate from eight mining machine models could go offline at the time of the next bitcoin halvingIf the electricity cost to run that rig is $6 per day, the miner is now operating at a loss.Unless electricity costs are reduced or Bitcoin prices increase significantly, shutting down the unprofitable rig becomes the only viable option.

Which Mining Rigs are Most Vulnerable?

According to Galaxy Digital's report, a specific set of older ASIC miner models are most susceptible to being taken offline.While the specific models were not named in the available snippets, they represent a significant portion of the current hashrate.These models are characterized by:

  • Lower energy efficiency (higher power consumption per terahash/second - TH/s)
  • Higher operational costs (primarily due to electricity consumption)
  • Older technology, making them less competitive compared to newer models

The report highlights that over 70% of the Bitcoin hashrate is currently generated by just eight ASIC miner models, indicating a concentration in the mining hardware landscape. 20% of Bitcoin hash rate could go offline after halving Galaxy DigitalMost older mining rigs will struggle to break even after Bitcoin block rewards posted by EZEANA-Chinweike-67While this concentration can be seen as a potential risk, it also means that the impact of the halving will be focused on a relatively small number of machines, making the analysis more precise.

Impact on Bitcoin Network: Block Times and Difficulty Adjustment

A significant decrease in the Bitcoin hashrate can directly affect the block times.Block time is the average time it takes for miners to find a new block and add it to the blockchain. The upcoming Bitcoin halving, slated to slash block rewards in half, is anticipated to trigger a significant offline shift in Bitcoins hash rate, potentially affecting up to 20% of the currentIdeally, Bitcoin is designed to maintain an average block time of around 10 minutes. We estimate that roughly % of the network hashrate at the conclusion of 2025 ( EH) could come offline at the time of the halving. Based on our analysis, we expected 2025 network hashrate to end in a range between 675 EH and 725 EH.When a significant portion of the hashrate goes offline, the rate at which new blocks are found decreases, leading to longer block times.

For example, if 20% of the hashrate goes offline, the average block time could initially increase by 20%, potentially reaching 12 minutes. As Bitcoin s highly anticipated halving event approaches, new research from Galaxy Digital suggests that up to 20% of the cryptocurrency s current hash rate could go offline. This reduction is expected to impact eight specific ASIC mining machine models, leading to a drop in the network s overall hash rate.This would mean slower transaction confirmations and potentially increased congestion on the network.

However, Bitcoin has a built-in mechanism to address this issue: the difficulty adjustment.The mining difficulty is adjusted approximately every two weeks (every 2016 blocks) to maintain the target block time of 10 minutes. Galaxy Digital analysts expect that up to 20% of network hash rate from eight mining machine models could go offline at the time of the next bitcoin halving. The upcoming halving when per-block rewards for mining bitcoin are cut from 6.25 bitcoin to 3.125 BTC is slated for April. Miners have looked to boost efficiency and reduce costsIf the average block time has been longer than 10 minutes, the difficulty is decreased, making it easier for miners to find new blocks.Conversely, if block times have been shorter than 10 minutes, the difficulty is increased.

This difficulty adjustment ensures that the Bitcoin network self-regulates and maintains its intended block time, even in the face of significant hashrate fluctuations. As the Bitcoin halving approaches, significant shifts in the network s hash rate are anticipated, potentially leading to the offline status of up to 20% of the current hash rate. According to analysts at Galaxy, over 70% of the Bitcoin hash rate is generated by just eight ASIC miner models, highlighting the concentration within the miningWhile there might be a temporary increase in block times immediately after the halving, the difficulty adjustment will eventually compensate for the hashrate decline, bringing block times back to the target level.

Beyond the Halving: Long-Term Hashrate Trends

While the immediate impact of the halving could lead to a 20% hashrate decrease, it's crucial to consider the long-term trends and factors that influence the Bitcoin hashrate.Galaxy Digital's analysis extends beyond the halving event, projecting the network hashrate at the end of 2025.

Their estimates suggest that the network hashrate will likely end 2025 in a range between 675 EH (Exahashes per second) and 725 EH. BTCUSD Bitcoin 20% of Bitcoin hash rate could go offline after halving: Galaxy Digital Most older mining rigs will struggle to break even after Bitcoin block rewards halve in April, promptingThis indicates that despite the initial decline, the hashrate is expected to recover and potentially surpass its pre-halving levels in the long run.Several factors contribute to this anticipated growth:

  • Technological advancements: The development and deployment of newer, more efficient mining hardware will continue to drive hashrate growth.
  • Bitcoin price appreciation: An increase in the price of Bitcoin would make mining more profitable, incentivizing miners to invest in new equipment and expand their operations.
  • Innovation in mining infrastructure: Advances in cooling technologies, power management, and mining pool strategies can improve efficiency and reduce operational costs.

Therefore, while the halving may present a short-term challenge, the Bitcoin mining industry is expected to adapt and continue to grow in the long term.

What Can Miners Do to Prepare for the Halving?

The impending halving requires Bitcoin miners to proactively prepare and adapt their strategies to remain competitive and profitable.Here are some actionable steps miners can take:

  1. Assess Mining Rig Efficiency: Conduct a thorough evaluation of the energy efficiency of all mining rigs.Identify older, less efficient models that are likely to become unprofitable after the halving.
  2. Optimize Operational Costs: Explore opportunities to reduce electricity costs, such as relocating to regions with cheaper power or investing in renewable energy sources.
  3. Upgrade Mining Hardware: Consider upgrading to newer, more efficient ASIC miners that offer a higher hash rate per unit of power consumption.
  4. Join a Mining Pool: Participating in a mining pool allows miners to combine their computational power, increasing their chances of finding blocks and earning rewards.
  5. Hedging Strategies: Miners can utilize hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of price volatility after the halving. GALAUSD Gala 20% of Bitcoin hash rate could go offline after halving: Galaxy Digital Most older mining rigs will struggle to break even after Bitcoin block rewards halve in April, promptingThis involves using financial instruments, such as futures contracts, to lock in a price for their Bitcoin rewards.
  6. Diversify Revenue Streams: Explore alternative revenue streams, such as providing hosting services for other miners or participating in Bitcoin lending platforms.

The Broader Implications for the Bitcoin Ecosystem

The potential hashrate decline following the halving has implications that extend beyond the mining industry. Most older mining rigs will struggle to break even after Bitcoin block rewards halve in April, prompting miners to take them offlineIt can impact the overall security and resilience of the Bitcoin network. BTCUSD Bitcoin 20% of Bitcoin hash rate could go offline after halving: Galaxy Digital Most older mining rigs will struggle to break even after Bitcoin block rewards halve in April, prompting miners to take them offline, says Galaxy Research.A lower hashrate makes the network potentially more vulnerable to attacks, such as a 51% attack, where a malicious actor controls a majority of the network's computational power and can manipulate transactions.

However, it's important to note that even with a 20% hashrate decline, the Bitcoin network remains highly secure. After the Bitcoin halving event, where the reward for mining is cut in half, up to 20% of the Bitcoin mining power might stop because only the most efficient miners will be able to continue. By the end of 2025, eight ASIC miner models produced more than 70% of Bitcoin s computing power, according to a report by Galaxy s mining analysts onThe difficulty adjustment mechanism quickly adapts to the new hashrate level, making attacks more difficult and expensive.Furthermore, the decentralized nature of the Bitcoin network, with mining operations spread across the globe, makes it more resistant to coordinated attacks.

The halving can also indirectly impact Bitcoin's price.The reduced supply of new Bitcoins entering the market could potentially increase demand and drive up the price, benefiting both miners and Bitcoin holders.However, the relationship between the halving and Bitcoin's price is complex and influenced by various factors, including market sentiment, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) About Bitcoin Halving and Hashrate

Here are some common questions related to the Bitcoin halving and its potential impact on hashrate:

What exactly is Bitcoin hashrate?

Bitcoin hashrate is the total computational power being used to mine Bitcoin.It's a measure of how much processing power the Bitcoin network is using to secure the blockchain and process transactions.Higher hashrate generally means greater security and resilience against attacks.

Why does the halving cause hashrate to potentially decline?

The halving reduces the block reward miners receive for their efforts.This makes older, less efficient mining rigs unprofitable, forcing miners to shut them down, which then lowers the total hashrate.

How does the difficulty adjustment compensate for a hashrate decline?

The difficulty adjustment automatically recalibrates the mining difficulty every two weeks based on the average block time.If block times are slower due to lower hashrate, the difficulty is lowered, making it easier to find blocks and restoring the target block time of 10 minutes.

Is a 20% hashrate decline a serious threat to Bitcoin's security?

While a hashrate decline can temporarily increase vulnerability, the Bitcoin network remains secure due to the difficulty adjustment and its decentralized nature. As much as 20% of Bitcoin s current hash rate could go offline after the Bitcoin halving, which will see block rewards slashed in half and leave only the most efficient mining rigs standing. At the end of 2025, over 70% of the Bitcoin hash rate was churned out by eight ASIC miner models, Galaxy s mining analysts said in a Feb. 14 reportA 20% decline doesn't pose an existential threat, and the network is expected to adapt and recover.

What is the future of Bitcoin mining after the halving?

The future of Bitcoin mining is likely to involve greater efficiency, technological advancements, and adaptation to changing market conditions.The industry is expected to continue to grow in the long term, driven by innovation and the increasing adoption of Bitcoin.

Conclusion: Adapting to the New Reality of Bitcoin Mining

The upcoming Bitcoin halving represents a pivotal moment for the Bitcoin mining industry. Up to 20% of Bitcoin s hashrate could go dark as older, unprofitable mining rigs are pulled off working the network, Galaxy Digital estimates show.Galaxy Digital's analysis highlighting the potential for a 20% hashrate decline underscores the economic pressures miners face and the importance of adapting to the new reality. To illustrate this, if we expect around 20% of network hashrate to come offline during the halving, blocktimes would on average increase by 20% before being adjusted. This is because of a mechanism called the difficulty adjustment, where mining difficulty (the average expected time to find a block) is adjusted every two weeks (2025 blocksWhile the initial impact might lead to temporary disruptions, the Bitcoin network's self-regulating mechanisms and the mining industry's capacity for innovation ensure its long-term resilience.

Miners must prioritize efficiency, optimize operational costs, and embrace new technologies to remain competitive.As the Bitcoin ecosystem evolves, miners who proactively adapt will be best positioned to thrive in the post-halving landscape.The key takeaways are:

  • The Bitcoin halving will reduce block rewards, impacting miner profitability.
  • Up to 20% of Bitcoin's hashrate could go offline due to unprofitable mining rigs.
  • Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment will compensate for hashrate declines.
  • Miners must focus on efficiency and innovation to survive and thrive.
  • The long-term outlook for Bitcoin mining remains positive.

As the halving approaches, stay informed, be prepared, and embrace the opportunities that this transformative event presents.By understanding the challenges and adapting accordingly, the Bitcoin community can ensure the continued growth and success of the world's leading cryptocurrency.

Ari Paul can be reached at [email protected].

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