BITCOIN ANALYSTS EXPLAIN WHY BTC COULD AVOID A DROP UNDER $90K

Bitcoin, the king of cryptocurrencies, has recently experienced a rollercoaster ride, with its price dipping to a new range low of $91,055 on January 9th, marking the lowest point since December 2025. MARA, a leading Bitcoin mining company, still holds 44,394 BTC as companies start to use Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Hold Above $100K or Fall to $90K?This volatility has sparked considerable debate among analysts, with some forecasting a further decline below the critical psychological support level of $90,000.The anxiety is palpable, especially considering the recent liquidation of over $1 billion in long positions.The question on everyone's mind is: will Bitcoin succumb to the bearish pressure, or can it hold its ground?While the bears point to weakening demand and concerning technical indicators, several factors suggest that Bitcoin might just avoid the dreaded plunge below $90,000. This bearish momentum has resulted in an almost 8% drop in under 24 hours, with over $1 billion in long positions liquidated across crypto exchanges. The RSI indicator is now near multi-month lows. Bitcoin Price Outlook. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted on X that Bitcoin could fall to $70K if major hedge funds exit US Bitcoin ETFs.Let's delve into the insights of seasoned Bitcoin analysts who present compelling arguments for why BTC could maintain its position above this key support level. Bitcoin At Make-Or-Break Moment. In a recent analysis, DonAlt shared concerns about Bitcoin s current daily chart, calling it shaky. He warned that if Bitcoin drops below the key support range of $98,000 to $101,000, it could trigger a sharp 15% decline. That would pull the price down to around $90,000 a level not seen since early May.From institutional adoption and strategic Bitcoin reserves to on-chain metrics and long-term holding patterns, we'll explore the reasons why the narrative might be more bullish than it appears at first glance. Bitcoin's (BTC) price dropped to a new range low at $91,055 on Jan. 9, its lowest value since Dec. 1, 2025. The next psychological support range remains under $90,000, and some market analystsUnderstanding these factors is crucial for navigating the current market uncertainty and making informed decisions about your Bitcoin investments.

Technical Analysis: Examining Key Support Levels for Bitcoin

One of the primary concerns driving the bearish sentiment is the current technical outlook. Bitcoin s price recently hit a new range low of $91,055 on January 9, marking its lowest point since December 2025. The crypto market is abuzz with speculatiDonAlt, a well-respected crypto analyst, recently described Bitcoins daily chart as ""shaky."" His analysis highlights a critical support range between $98,000 and $101,000.A breakdown below this range, he warned, could trigger a significant 15% correction, potentially dragging the price down to the $90,000 mark.

This warning is not to be taken lightly.Technical analysis plays a vital role in understanding market momentum and identifying potential price movements. In 2025, US lawmakers proposed the Bitcoin Act, which would direct the US Treasury Department to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve by purchasing 1 million BTC over a 5-year period.However, relying solely on technical indicators can be misleading.It's essential to consider other factors, such as fundamental analysis and market sentiment, for a more complete picture.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a popular momentum indicator, is also currently near multi-month lows, suggesting that Bitcoin is potentially oversold. 3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Risks Falling Below $90K: Godbole Bitcoin trades at a discount on Coinbase versus Binance, a sign of weaker U.S. demand. This and other indicators suggest scope for anWhile an oversold condition doesn't guarantee an immediate price reversal, it does indicate that the selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion.

The Psychological Significance of $90,000

The $90,000 level holds significant psychological weight for Bitcoin investors.It represents a barrier that, if broken, could trigger further panic selling and exacerbate the downward pressure.Conversely, if Bitcoin can successfully defend this level, it could instill confidence in the market and pave the way for a potential recovery.

Think of it as a line in the sand.Breaching it signifies a weakening of the bullish narrative and a potential shift towards a more bearish outlook.Defending it, on the other hand, reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is still a resilient asset with strong underlying support.

Fundamental Factors Supporting Bitcoins Price

While technical analysis provides valuable insights into short-term price movements, fundamental factors often play a more significant role in determining the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin.Several fundamental arguments support the idea that BTC can avoid a drop below $90,000.

Institutional Adoption and Bitcoin Reserves

One of the most compelling arguments is the increasing institutional adoption of Bitcoin.Companies like MARA, a leading Bitcoin mining company, are holding significant amounts of BTC (44,394 BTC in MARA's case) as a hedge against inflation and a store of value. Bitcoin s (BTC) price dropped to a new range low at $91,055 on Jan. 9, its lowest value since Dec. 1. The next psychological support range remains under $9This demonstrates a growing confidence in Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class among institutional investors.

Furthermore, the potential for governments to accumulate Bitcoin reserves could provide significant support. Bitcoin sprice dropped to a new range low at $91,055 on Jan. 9, its lowest value since Dec. 1. The next psychological support range remains under $90,000, and some market analysts continue to forecast a Read moreUS lawmakers proposed the Bitcoin Act in 2025, suggesting the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.While this proposal is still in its early stages, it highlights the growing recognition of Bitcoins potential as a strategic asset.

Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Inflation

The narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation remains a powerful driver of demand. Bitcoin s (BTC) price dropped to a new range low at $91,055 on Jan. 9, its lowest value since Dec. 1. The next psychological support range remains under $90,000, and some market analysts continue to forecast a decline below this level. However, the following four reasons suggest that BTC may avoidAs traditional currencies face inflationary pressures, investors are increasingly looking for alternative stores of value.Bitcoins limited supply and decentralized nature make it an attractive option for those seeking to protect their wealth from the eroding effects of inflation.

This is especially true in times of economic uncertainty.When traditional assets like stocks and bonds become volatile, investors often turn to Bitcoin as a safe haven. Glassnode：BTC价格高于短期持有者成本价约7%，若低于该水平表示新投资者情绪减弱This increased demand can help to support Bitcoins price and prevent it from falling below critical support levels.

On-Chain Analysis: Unveiling the Strength of Bitcoin Holders

On-chain analysis, which involves examining data directly from the Bitcoin blockchain, provides valuable insights into the behavior of Bitcoin holders.This data can help to assess the strength of the market and identify potential areas of support and resistance.

Long-Term Holders and Accumulation Patterns

One of the key metrics to watch is the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders.These individuals, who have held their Bitcoin for extended periods (typically a year or more), are less likely to be influenced by short-term price fluctuations.Their continued holding and accumulation of Bitcoin signals a strong belief in its long-term value.

Analyzing the age of coins on the blockchain can reveal whether long-term holders are selling or accumulating.If the percentage of older coins remains high or is even increasing, it suggests that long-term holders are confident in Bitcoins future and are not inclined to sell.

Short-Term Holder Cost Basis

Glassnode, a leading on-chain analytics firm, points out that the Bitcoin price is currently around 7% above the cost basis of short-term holders.If the price falls below this level, it could indicate weakening sentiment among new investors.However, as long as the price remains above this level, it suggests that new investors are still relatively confident in Bitcoins prospects.

Market Sentiment and External Factors

Market sentiment, the overall feeling or attitude of investors towards an asset, can significantly impact Bitcoins price.Positive sentiment can drive prices higher, while negative sentiment can lead to sell-offs and price declines.Several external factors can influence market sentiment, including:

Regulatory Developments

Regulatory developments, both positive and negative, can have a significant impact on Bitcoins price.Positive regulatory news, such as the approval of Bitcoin ETFs or the clarification of tax laws, can boost investor confidence and drive demand.Conversely, negative regulatory news, such as bans or restrictions on Bitcoin trading, can trigger fear and lead to price declines.

The recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has been a major positive development for the market.These ETFs provide institutional investors with a more accessible and regulated way to gain exposure to Bitcoin, which has significantly increased demand.

Macroeconomic Conditions

Macroeconomic conditions, such as inflation, interest rates, and economic growth, can also influence Bitcoins price.As mentioned earlier, Bitcoin is often seen as a hedge against inflation.Therefore, rising inflation can drive demand for Bitcoin and support its price.

Changes in interest rates can also affect Bitcoins price.Lower interest rates can make Bitcoin more attractive to investors, as it offers a higher potential return than traditional assets like bonds.Conversely, higher interest rates can make Bitcoin less attractive, as investors may prefer the safety and yield of bonds.

The Impact of US Bitcoin ETFs and Potential Hedge Fund Exits

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has warned that Bitcoin could fall to $70,000 if major hedge funds exit US Bitcoin ETFs.This highlights the potential vulnerability of Bitcoin to large-scale institutional selling.While this is a legitimate concern, it's important to remember that the Bitcoin market is becoming increasingly mature and less susceptible to sudden price swings.

The long-term success of Bitcoin ETFs will depend on their ability to attract and retain institutional investors.While some hedge funds may choose to exit, others will likely continue to hold and accumulate Bitcoin, recognizing its potential as a long-term store of value.

Addressing the Bearish Momentum and Potential Downside Risks

Despite the factors supporting Bitcoins price, it's important to acknowledge the bearish momentum and potential downside risks.The recent 8% drop and the liquidation of over $1 billion in long positions demonstrate the volatility of the cryptocurrency market.

Weakening US Demand

One concerning indicator is the fact that Bitcoin is trading at a discount on Coinbase compared to Binance, which suggests weaker US demand.This could be due to a variety of factors, including regulatory uncertainty and increased competition from other cryptocurrencies.

Contagion Risks within the Crypto Market

It's also important to be aware of contagion risks within the crypto market.If one major cryptocurrency or crypto exchange experiences a significant failure, it could trigger a cascade of selling and negatively impact the entire market, including Bitcoin.

Strategies for Navigating the Current Market Uncertainty

Given the current market uncertainty, it's essential to adopt a prudent investment strategy.Here are some tips for navigating the volatility and protecting your Bitcoin investments:

• Diversify your portfolio: Don't put all your eggs in one basket.Diversify your investments across different asset classes to reduce your overall risk.
• Use stop-loss orders: Stop-loss orders can help to limit your losses in the event of a sudden price decline.
• Avoid excessive leverage: Leverage can amplify your gains, but it can also amplify your losses.Use leverage cautiously and only if you fully understand the risks.
• Stay informed: Keep up-to-date with the latest news and analysis in the cryptocurrency market.This will help you make informed investment decisions.
• Focus on the long term: Bitcoin is a long-term investment.Don't get caught up in short-term price fluctuations.Focus on the long-term fundamentals and potential of the asset.

Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)

One popular strategy for investing in Bitcoin is dollar-cost averaging (DCA).This involves investing a fixed amount of money in Bitcoin at regular intervals, regardless of the price.DCA can help to reduce your risk by averaging out your purchase price over time.

For example, instead of investing $1,000 in Bitcoin all at once, you could invest $100 per week for 10 weeks.This would help you to buy more Bitcoin when the price is low and less Bitcoin when the price is high.

Conclusion: Why Bitcoin Might Avert a Drop Below $90K and the Future Outlook

While the recent price dip to $91,055 and the warnings from analysts like DonAlt regarding a potential fall to $90,000 are cause for caution, a comprehensive analysis reveals several compelling reasons why Bitcoin might avoid such a significant decline.Institutional adoption, as evidenced by companies like MARA holding substantial Bitcoin reserves, suggests a growing confidence in BTC as a store of value.Furthermore, the potential for government-backed Bitcoin reserves, as proposed by the Bitcoin Act, highlights its strategic importance.The narrative of Bitcoin as an inflation hedge continues to attract investors seeking alternatives to traditional assets.On-chain data, particularly the behavior of long-term holders, indicates a strong belief in Bitcoins long-term prospects.Despite potential headwinds like weakening US demand and the possibility of hedge fund exits from Bitcoin ETFs, the overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic.Regulatory developments and macroeconomic conditions will continue to play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment.Ultimately, navigating the current market uncertainty requires a balanced approach, combining technical analysis with fundamental research and a focus on long-term investment strategies.While a drop below $90,000 cannot be entirely ruled out, the confluence of factors outlined by Bitcoin analysts suggests that BTC has a good chance of maintaining its position above this key psychological support level.Stay vigilant, stay informed, and remember that Bitcoin, despite its volatility, remains a potentially transformative asset in the long run.Always conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions and consult with a qualified financial advisor.