ANOTHER BITCOIN ATH, FEARS OVER BTC LIQUIDITY CRISIS, AND IS THIS THE DEATH OF THE 4-YEAR CYCLE?

Bitcoin's recent surge has ignited both excitement and apprehension in the crypto market. Halving bitcoin 2025 infographic. Block reward reduced in half every four years. getty. The supply shock triggered by the halving has a significant impact on Bitcoin s price behavior.After flirting with $88,700, the leading cryptocurrency has experienced a slight pullback below $87,000, sparking concerns about a potential deeper correction.This price volatility raises crucial questions about Bitcoin's short-term trajectory, the sustainability of its liquidity, and the long-term validity of the widely discussed four-year cycle.Are we on the cusp of another major bull run leading into 2025, or are the established market patterns shifting?Large corporations and major financial institutions are increasingly interested in buying Bitcoin, according to Bitwise, further fueling speculation and adding complexity to the market dynamics.This is a pivotal moment for Bitcoin investors as they navigate the intricate balance between fear of missing out (FOMO) and the risk of a substantial downturn.Let's delve into the key factors shaping Bitcoin's current landscape and what it all means for the future.

Bitcoin's Price Volatility and Potential Correction

Bitcoin’s recent price action has been characterized by significant volatility. The Global Liquidity Cycle. The global money supply and cyclical liquidity, as measured by Global M2 YoY vs BTC, has also followed a four-year cycle. For instance, M2 liquidity bottomed out in 20, just as Bitcoin hit lows. In 2025, M2 again hit a low point, perfectly aligning with Bitcoin s bear market bottom.While it briefly touched nearly $89,000, the subsequent retracement has triggered concerns among traders.Many are wondering if this is just a temporary pullback before another leg up, or if it signals the beginning of a more substantial correction. How to Interpret Cycle Repeat. The future 1,458 day projections should be taken only as estimates. The entire chart s accuracy depends on Bitcoin s behavior to repeat itself perfectly. There are many reasons why bitcoin might over or underperform its previous 1,458 day behavior. This chart should be viewed as theoretical only.Understanding the factors that contribute to these price swings is crucial for making informed investment decisions.

Analyzing the Current Market Sentiment

Market sentiment plays a significant role in short-term price movements. This post covers the different all-time highs (ATH) Bitcoin has reached throughout the years. Bitcoin All-Time High Summary. Bitcoin s all-time high price was on Janu, when it reached $108,786. At that time, there were just over 19.6 million bitcoins in circulation, bringing the market cap to around $2.15 trillion.Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), along with positive news and hype, can quickly influence buying and selling pressure. Let s take the 2025 cycle as an example: while Bitcoin peaked in December 2025, the altcoin season took place in January 2025. Source: CoinMarketCap . The below is very well summarized by the prominent cryptocurrency analyst SecretsOfCrypto. He outlined the flow of the crowd during a 4-year crypto cycle in this graphic:Currently, there seems to be a mix of optimism and caution among market participants.The potential for a deeper correction is weighing on investors' minds, leading to increased vigilance and potentially contributing to selling pressure.

It's important to remember that corrections are a natural part of any market cycle.They allow for consolidation and can provide opportunities for new investors to enter the market at lower prices.

The Looming Bitcoin Liquidity Crisis

One of the more pressing concerns is the potential for a Bitcoin liquidity crisis. 🚨MASSIVE SIGNAL: The anti-crypto era is officially ending🚨🔹BitMEX founder @CryptoHayes: Pardoned🔹Hawk Tuah Girl s token: SEC dropped the case🔹FDIC rulesAn industry analyst suggests that Bitcoin could face a sell-side liquidity crunch as early as September if institutional inflows continue at their current pace.This situation arises because the supply of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges may not be sufficient to meet the growing demand from institutional investors.

Understanding the Supply and Demand Dynamics

The Bitcoin market operates on the principles of supply and demand.As institutional adoption increases, the demand for Bitcoin rises.However, the supply of Bitcoin is limited, with only 21 million coins ever to be mined.The upcoming halving in April 2025 will further reduce the rate at which new Bitcoin is created, exacerbating the supply shortage.

When demand exceeds supply, prices tend to rise.However, if a liquidity crisis occurs, it could lead to rapid and potentially destabilizing price increases, followed by equally sharp corrections.

How Institutional Inflows Impact Liquidity

Large corporations and major wirehouses gearing up to buy Bitcoin, like what Bitwise is reporting, can significantly impact the Bitcoin market.Their large purchases quickly deplete the available supply on exchanges, leading to higher prices and increased volatility. This is a pivotal moment in the Bitcoin market and this is a big episode!Further reading:Bitcoin at $71K, same as $20K last cycle BTC price analysisLarge corporations, major wirehouses gearing up to buy Bitcoin: BitwiseBitcoin has 6 months until ETF liquidity crisis New analysisBitcoin buying advised as US enters theWhile institutional adoption is generally seen as a positive sign for Bitcoin's long-term viability, it also presents challenges for market stability, especially from a liquidity perspective.

The Four-Year Cycle: Still Relevant?

The four-year cycle is a prominent theory in the crypto community, primarily centered around the Bitcoin halving. 4 Year Multiple Days Higher Than Current Shows Bitcoin's price in its current cycle compared to past cycles. it uses actual BTC supply. For future months, itThis event, occurring approximately every four years, reduces the block reward given to miners by half. Bitcoin halvings aren't the primary catalyst for BTC bull markets liquidity cycle uptrends are. It just so happens that each halving has lined up with an expansionary liquidity environment.Historically, halvings have been followed by significant price rallies.

The Historical Significance of Halvings

The previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 saw mining block rewards drop from 50 BTC to 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC, respectively. The next Bitcoin halving is expected to take place in April 2025, and so it is important to gain a better understanding of the four-year cycle that Bitcoin has experienced since its creation. Tip: The halving process restricts the introduction of new bitcoin to the circulating supply.After the upcoming halving in April 2025, the reward will be reduced to 3.125 BTC per block. For years, Bitcoin BTC $96 611 24h volatility: 2.1% Market cap: $1.92 T Vol. 24h: $29.09 B has followed a four-year cycle: three years of growth, then a big crash. Investors and analysts haveThis reduction in supply has historically created a deflationary pressure that has preceded major Bitcoin price surges.

The four-year cycle has been a reliable pattern in the past, with each cycle typically consisting of three years of growth followed by a significant correction.

Is This Cycle Different?

However, there are arguments suggesting that the current cycle may deviate from the historical pattern.The latest peak was reached in just 1,134 days, shorter than the prior cycle's 1,428 days. The live Bitcoin price today is $104,364.35 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $50,255,072,425.45 USD. We update our BTC to USD price in real-time.Also, the increase from the previous cycle’s high was a 57% increase, much less robust than the 250% gain in the previous cycle.

Furthermore, increased institutional involvement and macroeconomic factors may be altering the traditional cycle dynamics.Factors like the global liquidity cycle and regulatory developments also play an increasingly important role. Bitcoin (BTC) faces a sell-side liquidity crisis by September if institutional inflows continue, an industry analyst says. In a thread on X on March 12, Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of onThe global money supply and cyclical liquidity, as measured by Global M2 YoY, has historically followed the four-year cycle as well. Previous halvings in 2025, 20 saw mining block rewards drop from 50 BTC to 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC to the current 6.25 BTC mark. After April, only 3.125 BTC will be emitted with each block. This has created a predictable deflationary pressure that has historically preceded huge Bitcoin price rallies.M2 liquidity bottomed out in 2018, just as Bitcoin hit lows. Bitcoin Cycle Master is a combination of on-chain metrics including Coin Value Days Destroyed and Terminal Price. They are able to identify where Bitcoin price is valued relatively within its cycles. Historically those cycles have been approximately every 4 years and correlate with Bitcoin Halving events.In 2022, M2 again hit a low point, perfectly aligning with Bitcoin's bear market bottom.

Analyzing the 4 Year Multiple Chart

The 4 years multiple chart is a useful tool to visualize Bitcoin’s performance relative to its price four years prior.It helps to identify potential overbought or oversold conditions based on historical patterns.By comparing the current price to the price on the same day four years ago, it's possible to gauge whether Bitcoin is trading at a premium or discount compared to its historical performance.

Understanding Bitcoin's All-Time Highs (ATH)

Bitcoin has reached numerous all-time highs (ATH) throughout its history, each marking a significant milestone in its price discovery. The latest peak, a 57% increase from the previous cycle s high, was reached in just 1,134 days shorter and less robust than the prior cycle, which saw a 250% gain over 1,428 days. Since hitting its peak, Bitcoin has slid 14%, stirring fears among investors.These ATHs often serve as psychological barriers and can influence future price movements.

Key Bitcoin All-Time Highs

• Previous ATH: Bitcoin’s previous all-time high was recorded in January 2024 when it reached $108,786.
• Market Cap: At that time, with just over 19.6 million bitcoins in circulation, the market capitalization reached approximately $2.15 trillion.

These historical ATHs provide a benchmark for future price expectations and can influence investor sentiment. Bitcoin has historically moved in a four-year cycle over its 16-year lifespan, seeing losses over 2025, 2025, and 2025 but hitting new peaks in the three years between each pullback. The nextThey also highlight the long-term growth potential of Bitcoin.

Days Since ATH Chart Explained

The Day since ATH chart helps to visualize the time elapsed between successive all-time highs.Historically, the average time between ATHs has consolidated at around 1,400 days, closely aligning with the halving cycle.By monitoring this chart, investors can get a sense of the duration of bull and bear markets and make more informed decisions.

Bitcoin vs. The Day since ATH chart displays historical Bitcoin price data on a timeline with vertical axes showing ATHs and their dates. The average time between ATHs consolidated at around 1400 days (approximately 4 years). The same approximate time as the Halvings cycle. 1st ATH: Jun 08 2025 Price range: $ 31 ~ 1,160 2nd ATH: Nov 30 2025Ethereum (ETH) Corrections

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, but they can behave differently during market corrections. Once they enter or exit orders within this liquidity, the price can now reverse. Furthermore, liquidation levels can exert significant pressure on either the buy or sell side of the order book, leading to a natural price reversal. Liquidations play a crucial role in the cryptocurrency market as they have a significant impact on traders' positions.Understanding these differences is essential for portfolio diversification.

Comparing Correction Patterns

Some analysts suggest that for major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, corrections of 85-95% may become a thing of the past. This chart compares the performance of Bitcoin s price starting from the lowest price of each cycle until the next lowest price after the Bull run. The lowest price of the current cycle (pink color) was $ on Novem. It s noticeable that our cycle is currently stronger than the previous ones.Instead, drawdowns could moderate to around 60%, especially with the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) acting as a potential support level. The four-year cycle is a prominent theory pushed by the crypto community. It is centered around the Bitcoin Halving, which occurs every four years, hence the four-year cycle. We've seen BTC trade similarly over the past two halving events; the cycle top, bottom, and length of cycles were all relatively close in timing.This is because the market is becoming more mature, and more institutional investors are holding Bitcoin for the long term.

However, it's important to note that historical patterns are not always indicative of future performance.Market conditions can change rapidly, and unexpected events can trigger larger corrections.

The Role of Liquidation Levels

Liquidation levels play a crucial role in cryptocurrency market dynamics. Lummis proposed Bitcoin Act 2025 would enable the US government to insert Bitcoin into its treasury as a reserve asset by buying 200,000 BTC annually over five years, accumulating 1 millionThese levels represent the price points at which leveraged positions are automatically closed to prevent further losses.

How Liquidations Impact Price Movements

When prices approach liquidation levels, it can trigger a cascade of liquidations, leading to significant price swings. Bitcoin All-Time High Chart Explained. This chart shows Bitcoin's price history. The red dots indicate when the Bitcoin price made all-time highs. At the top of the page, we have also displayed the most recent Bitcoin all-time high, and the date on which it occurred.If a large number of traders are using high leverage, these liquidations can amplify market volatility.

Keeping an eye on liquidation levels can provide insights into potential support and resistance areas and help traders manage their risk more effectively.

Bitcoin and the Global Liquidity Cycle

The global liquidity cycle, influenced by factors like central bank policies and economic growth, can have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price.

Analyzing the Correlation

Historically, Bitcoin's price has shown a correlation with the global liquidity cycle.For instance, M2 liquidity bottomed out in 2018, coinciding with Bitcoin's market lows.This suggests that increased liquidity in the global financial system can contribute to Bitcoin's price appreciation.

Monitoring the global liquidity cycle can provide a broader context for understanding Bitcoin's price movements and making informed investment decisions.

Bitcoin Halving 2025: What to Expect

The upcoming Bitcoin halving in April 2025 is a highly anticipated event that could significantly impact the cryptocurrency market.The halving process restricts the introduction of new bitcoin to the circulating supply.

Impact on Bitcoin's Price Behavior

Historically, Bitcoin has moved in a four-year cycle, seeing losses over periods like 2014, 2018, and 2022 but hitting new peaks in the three years between each pullback.The supply shock triggered by the halving has a significant impact on Bitcoin’s price behavior.Reducing the block reward by half effectively cuts the rate at which new bitcoins enter the market, decreasing the selling pressure from miners and creating a supply squeeze.This, in turn, has often resulted in increased demand and higher prices.

How to Prepare for the Halving

• Stay informed: Keep up-to-date with the latest news and analysis related to the halving.
• Manage risk: Diversify your portfolio and avoid using excessive leverage.
• Long-term perspective: Focus on the long-term potential of Bitcoin and avoid making emotional decisions based on short-term price fluctuations.

The Potential for a US Bitcoin Treasury Reserve

US Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed the Bitcoin Act 2024, which would enable the US government to insert Bitcoin into its treasury as a reserve asset by buying 200,000 BTC annually over five years, accumulating 1 million Bitcoin.

The Impact on Bitcoin Adoption

If enacted, this legislation could have a significant impact on Bitcoin adoption and price. 4 Years Multiple Explained . The 4 years multiple chart shows what multiple the end of day price of bitcoin is on a day compared to the same day 4 years before. The color legend on the right side of the chart represents how many days are left until the next halving. How to Calculate 4 Year Multiple . Choose a day on the chart.Government backing would legitimize Bitcoin as a store of value and encourage broader adoption among institutions and individuals.

While the proposal faces political hurdles, its potential impact highlights the growing recognition of Bitcoin as a viable asset class.

Conclusion: Navigating the Bitcoin Landscape

Bitcoin's recent price action, the looming liquidity crisis, and the evolving four-year cycle present both opportunities and risks for investors. In 2025, Bitcoin surged to nearly $20,000, and LPPLS models signaled an overheating market. Not long after, BTC crashed by more than 80% over the next year. Historical Bitcoin crashes and causes: Key learnings. Bitcoin s history is full of sizable corrections.While the historical patterns suggest a potential rally after the 2025 halving, it’s crucial to acknowledge the changing dynamics influenced by increased institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors.The potential liquidity crunch is a serious concern that could lead to increased volatility. This metric tracks the amount of Bitcoin that has remained unmoved on-chain for at least 155 days, a proxy for investor conviction and potential supply constraints. Bitcoin long-term holder supply.It is imperative for investors to remain vigilant, manage risk effectively, and stay informed about the latest market developments.Bitcoin, trading near $96,000, holds great promise as a transformative asset, but requires a balanced and well-researched approach to navigate its inherent uncertainties. The Bitcoin 4-year cycle is a notable trend in the crypto market, significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors, investor behavior, and miners' actions. The liquidity cycle and behavioral dynamics within Bitcoin play a role in the dispersion and accumulation of assets, leading to shifts in the market's overall state.The intersection of these factors will ultimately determine whether this **Bitcoin ATH** is a stepping stone to even greater heights, or a prelude to a more challenging period.