BEARS SCATTERED AS BITCOIN HIT $40K, BUT PRO TRADERS REMAIN CAUTIOUS

The cryptocurrency market is a rollercoaster, and lately, Bitcoin has provided a thrilling ride. Most traders remain cautious, predicting a smaller price increase for Bitcoin. BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes has forecasted a major Bitcoin rally. He believes the cryptocurrency could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025 if the U.S. Federal Reserve pivots to quantitative easing (QE).As Bitcoin surged past the $40,000 mark, a wave of optimism swept through the crypto space, leading many to believe that the bearish winter might finally be thawing. While the S P 500 gained 8%, Bitcoin derivative metrics have yet to turn bullish as traders remain cautious about changes in US long-term government bonds. Bitcoin 2-month futures annualizedThe rally sparked celebrations and fueled hopes for a sustained bull run.However, beneath the surface of this apparent euphoria, a sense of caution prevails, particularly among professional traders and seasoned market observers. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD trading increasingly close to $86,000. Now at its lowest levels since Nov. 13, Bitcoin struggled to catch a bid as wary tradersThey've seen similar false dawns before, and they understand that short-term price movements don't always reflect the underlying strength or stability of the market.

This article delves into the recent Bitcoin surge, exploring the reasons behind the cautious sentiment among professional traders. Bitcoin's rally to $40,000 alleviated some of the bearish sentiment in the market, but data shows derivatives traders still walking on eggshells. Bears scattered as Bitcoin hit $40K, but proWe'll examine derivatives market data, analyze historical patterns, and consider the macroeconomic factors that could influence Bitcoin's trajectory. El crecimiento del volumen de trading de Ether fue mucho m s r pido que el de Bitcoin durante el primer semestre de 2025; Siempre que los creadores de mercado y los traders profesionales se inclinen al alza, exigir n una prima m s alta en las opciones de compra. Esta tendencia provocar un indicador de sesgo delta negativo del 25%.Is this a genuine breakout, or just another head fake before the bears regain control? Bitcoin s rally to $40,000 alleviated some of the bearish sentiment in the market, but data shows derivatives traders still walking on eggshells.Let's unpack the complexities of the current Bitcoin landscape and understand what the pro traders are watching so closely.

Decoding the Bitcoin Rally to $40,000

Bitcoin's recent climb to $40,000 was undoubtedly a welcome sight for many investors who had endured a prolonged period of price stagnation and bearish pressure. Bears scattered as Bitcoin hit $40K, but pro traders remain cautious Source:The rally wasn't a slow, steady climb; it was a relatively rapid ascent, fueled by a combination of factors.

• Technical Breakout: Bitcoin broke through several key resistance levels, triggering buy orders and attracting momentum traders.
• Short Squeeze: As the price rose, short sellers were forced to cover their positions, further driving up the price in a classic short squeeze scenario.
• Improved Sentiment: The overall market sentiment shifted from fear and uncertainty to a more optimistic outlook, attracting new buyers and encouraging existing holders to hold onto their Bitcoin.
• External Factors: While not always directly correlated, positive news or developments in the broader financial markets can sometimes provide a boost to Bitcoin.

Remember the earlier surge to $41,000 after crashing to $31,000? ETH is up 6.4%, but still struggling to reclaim $2K as traders remain cautious. Futures and options data show weak confidence, with whales hedging against more downside. Ethereum s fundamentals are solid, but retail enthusiasm is fading, partly due to ETF outflows. Ether s price ticked up a bit 6.4% from its March 30 low of $1,768 not aThat 32% rally liquidated $1.4 billion in BTC short contracts. However, bulls should remain cautious of a significant CME gap around the $78,000 level, which could be a magnet for price correction. At the time of writing, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $2.904 trillion, reflecting a 3.7% decline over the past 24 hours.Bears were caught off guard, but within three days, Bitcoin fell below $38,000, initiating a downtrend. Bitcoin hit new highs on Jan. 20, but data shows traders are neutral as the market waits to see if a BTC-friendly executive order is issued by President Trump. Total views 19 Total sharesThat memory is fresh in the minds of many.

Derivatives Data: A Window into Pro Trader Sentiment

While the spot price of Bitcoin provides a snapshot of current market conditions, the derivatives market offers valuable insights into how professional traders are positioning themselves for the future. Jordan Finneseth is a Crypto Market Reporter for Kitco Crypto. Coming from a background in Psychology and Human Behavior, he began to focus his attention on the cryptocurrency space in early 2025 after noticing the rapid growth of this emerging market.By analyzing data from Bitcoin futures and options, we can gain a better understanding of their expectations and risk assessments.

Analyzing Futures Contracts

Bitcoin futures contracts allow traders to bet on the future price of Bitcoin.A higher price for futures contracts compared to the spot price (known as a contango) typically indicates bullish sentiment, as traders are willing to pay a premium to hold Bitcoin in the future. I trader di Bitcoin potrebbero essere fin troppo euforici dopo il recente rally del 35%.I dati, infatti, suggeriscono che i ribassisti non sono troppo preoccupati a riguardo: un tentativo di breakout simile ha gi avuto luogo a met giugno, ma il prezzo non riuscito a superare la fatidica resistenza dei 40.000$.Conversely, a lower price for futures contracts (known as backwardation) suggests bearish sentiment.

Currently, the data suggests that while the futures market has seen some improvement, it hasn't fully embraced the bullish narrative.The premium for futures contracts remains relatively modest, indicating that professional traders are still hedging their bets and not fully convinced that the rally will continue.

Examining Options Activity

Bitcoin options contracts give traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell Bitcoin at a specific price (the strike price) on or before a specific date (the expiration date). Bears scattered as Bitcoin hit $40K, but pro traders remain cautious Source Buzz Thursday, 29 Jul, 2025 GMTBy analyzing the volume and open interest of call options (which give the right to buy) and put options (which give the right to sell), we can gauge the market's expectations for future price movements.

For instance, an indicator, the 25% delta skew, measures the implied volatility difference between equivalent out-of-the-money calls and puts. Bitcoin s rally to $40,000 alleviated some of the bearish sentiment in the market, but data shows derivatives traders still walking on eggshells. Skip to content Call NowThis reveals when professional traders are pricing the odds of a potential retrace to $36,000.

If put options are more expensive than call options, it suggests that traders are more concerned about downside risk and are willing to pay a premium to protect themselves from a potential price decline. Bitcoin's rally to $40,000 alleviated some of the bearish sentiment in the market, but data shows derivatives traders still walking on eggshells. Please note, this is a STATIC archive of website cointelegraph.com from, cach3.com does not collect or store any user information, there is no phishing involved.Current options data suggests that a cautious approach remains amongst professional traders.

Historical Patterns: A Cautionary Tale

Experienced traders often look to historical patterns for clues about future price movements.In Bitcoin's relatively short history, there have been several instances of sharp rallies followed by equally sharp corrections. 1.4K subscribers in the CRYPTOComrade community. 🎙EVERYTHING CRYPTO RELATED News, updates, charts, NFTS, and discussionsThese patterns serve as a reminder that even seemingly strong breakouts can be short-lived.

The Mid-July Precedent

As the research snippets highlight, a similar breakout occurred in mid-July, but the price failed to hold.This recent history is fresh in the minds of traders, making them hesitant to jump on the bandwagon just yet. Even though the pattern isn't exactly similar, Bitcoin crashed to $31,000 on June 8 and bounced to $41,000 six days later. The 32% rally caused $1.4 billion BTC short contracts liquidation that spread over the week. Bears were clearly not expecting this move, but in less than three days, Bitcoin was trading below $38,000 and initiated a downtrend.The failure of that previous rally underscores the importance of waiting for confirmation before committing to a long-term bullish position.

The June Dip and Rebound

The price action in June also serves as a relevant example. Bitcoin s rally to $40,000 alleviated some of the bearish sentiment in the market, but data shows derivatives traders still walking on eggshells. Bitcoin (BTC) traders might be feeling extra euphoric after the recent 35% rally, but data suggests bears are not too worried because a similar breakout took place in mid-July and the price failedBitcoin crashed to $31,000 on June 8 and bounced to $41,000 six days later.The 32% rally caused $1.4 billion BTC short contracts liquidation that spread over the week.Bears were clearly not expecting this move, but in less than three days, Bitcoin was trading below $38,000 and initiated a downtrend.This volatility and the quick reversal reinforces the need for caution.

Macroeconomic Headwinds and Potential Catalysts

Beyond technical analysis and derivatives data, it's crucial to consider the broader macroeconomic environment that could influence Bitcoin's price.Factors such as inflation, interest rates, and regulatory developments can all have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market.

Inflation and Interest Rates

Rising inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates can put downward pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. While some traders remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term potential, others are cautious and advise monitoring. Bitcoin recently surged to an all-time high of $93,445 before pulling back to $90,000 a key level that aligns with a significant trendline from its 2025 peaks.As interest rates rise, investors may become more inclined to allocate their capital to more traditional assets like bonds, which offer a relatively safe and predictable return.Monitoring the S&P 500 as well as US long-term government bond activity remains vital.

Regulatory Uncertainty

Regulatory uncertainty remains a significant headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Skip to main content Bitcoin Insider. MenuThe lack of clear and consistent regulations can create uncertainty and discourage institutional investment.Any negative regulatory developments could trigger a sharp price decline.

Potential Catalysts for Further Growth

While caution is warranted, it's also important to acknowledge the potential catalysts that could drive Bitcoin higher.These include:

• Increased Institutional Adoption: Growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin could provide a significant boost to demand and price.As more companies and investment firms add Bitcoin to their balance sheets, it could legitimize the asset class and attract more mainstream investors.
• Bitcoin ETFs: The approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States could make it easier for retail investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without having to directly purchase and store the cryptocurrency.This could unlock a significant amount of new capital and drive up the price.
• Geopolitical Instability: In times of geopolitical instability, Bitcoin can act as a safe haven asset, as investors seek refuge from traditional financial markets. Having broken a descending wedge pattern, Bitcoin surged up to an impressive 22% increase this week. The crypto giant reached its highest since June 15 this week. With a good surge in price, no doubt the bear was attacked but the bear sentiment remains strong prompting pro-traders to maintain an overall cautious outlook.This increased demand could push the price higher.
• Technological Advancements: Continued advancements in Bitcoin's technology, such as the Lightning Network, could improve its scalability and usability, making it more attractive to a wider range of users.

The Role of Bitcoin Whales

Large Bitcoin holders, often referred to as ""whales,"" can have a significant impact on the market. Typically, these indicators reveal how professional traders are pricing the odds of a potential retrace to $36,000. Bitcoin price at Coinbase, in USD. Source: TradingView Even though the pattern isn t exactly similar, Bitcoin crashed to $31,000 on June 8 and bounced to $41,000 six days later. The 32% rally caused $1.4 billion BTC shortTheir buying and selling activity can create large price swings and influence market sentiment. Bitcoin (BTC) zoomed to over $93,000 in early Asian hours Monday, reversing a chunk of losses from last week when it dropped to as low as $83,500 on macroeconomic headwinds such as U.S. tariffsMonitoring whale activity can provide valuable insights into the potential direction of the market.

Whale Accumulation vs.Distribution

If whales are accumulating Bitcoin, it suggests that they are optimistic about the future price and are willing to buy at current levels. Even though the pattern isn t exactly similar, Bitcoin crashed to $31,000 on June 8 and bounced to $41,000 six days later. The 32% rally caused $1.4 billion BTC short contracts liquidation that spread over the week. Bears were clearly not expecting this move, but in less than three days, Bitcoin was trading below $38,000 and initiated aConversely, if they are distributing their holdings, it suggests that they are concerned about potential downside risk and are looking to take profits. Esses indicadores revelam por que os traders profissionais est o avaliando as chances de um recuo para US$ 36.000. Pre o do Bitcoin na Coinbase (USD). Fonte: TradingView. Mesmo que, agora, o padr o n o seja exatamente o mesmo, o Bitcoin caiu para US$ 31.000 em 8 de junho e saltou para US$ 41.000 seis dias depois.Keep an eye out for the Bitcoin holdings distribution and accumulation activities of the whales.

Ethereum and the Broader Crypto Market

While Bitcoin is the dominant cryptocurrency, it's important to consider the broader crypto market and its potential impact on Bitcoin's price.Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, often serves as a bellwether for the altcoin market. Bitcoin s rally to $40,000 alleviated some of the bearish sentiment in the market, but data shows derivatives traders still walking on eggshells. Bitcoin traders might be feeling extra euphoric after the recent 35% rally, but data suggests bears are not too worried because a similar breakout took place in mid-July and the price failed to holdRecent data shows ETH is up, but stuggling to break key resistance levels as traders remain cautious.Outflows from Ether ETFs don't help.

Ether's Performance and Market Sentiment

If Ethereum is performing well, it suggests that the overall crypto market is healthy and that investors are willing to take on more risk. Bitcoin-Rally auf 40.000 US-Dollar verbessert die Stimmung auf dem Markt etwas, aber Daten zeigen, dass Profi-H ndler immer noch vorsichtig sind. Bitcoin (BTC)-H ndler freuen sich ber die k rzliche Rallye um 35 Prozent. Aber aus Daten geht hervor, dass die B ren sich nicht allzu viele GedankenConversely, if Ethereum is struggling, it could indicate a broader market downturn.

The trading volume between Ether and Bitcoin is worth monitoring.During the first half of 2025, Ether saw larger trading volume growth than Bitcoin.When market makers and professional traders show an upward trend for Altcoins like Ether, they demand a higher premium on call options, leading to a negative 25% delta skew.

Expert Opinions and Market Forecasts

It's always helpful to consider the opinions of respected analysts and market experts. Coinbase'de Bitcoin fiyatı, USD. Kaynak: TradingView. Formasyon tam olarak aynı olmasa da, Bitcoin 8 Haziran'da 31 bin dolara akıldı ve altı g n sonra 41 bin dolara sekti. Y zde 32'lik bu ralli, 1,4 milyar dolar değerinde BTC kısa pozisyonunun likide edilmesiyle sonu landı.While their forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt, they can provide valuable insights into the potential risks and opportunities in the Bitcoin market.

Arthur Hayes' Bold Prediction

BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes has predicted that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025 if the U.S.Federal Reserve pivots to quantitative easing (QE).This is a highly bullish forecast, but it's based on the assumption that the Fed will reverse its current monetary policy.

The Importance of Staying Informed

The key takeaway is that the cryptocurrency market is constantly evolving, and it's crucial to stay informed about the latest developments and trends. Bears scattered as Bitcoin hit $40K, but pro traders remain cautiousBy monitoring technical indicators, analyzing derivatives data, and considering the macroeconomic environment, traders can make more informed decisions and manage their risk effectively.Keep informed of developing executive actions and news.

Actionable Advice for Navigating the Current Market

Given the cautious sentiment among professional traders, what steps can individual investors take to navigate the current Bitcoin market?

1. Do Your Own Research (DYOR): Don't rely solely on the opinions of others.Conduct your own research and analysis to understand the risks and potential rewards of investing in Bitcoin.
2. Manage Your Risk: Only invest what you can afford to lose.Bitcoin is a volatile asset, and there is always the risk of a significant price decline.
3. Diversify Your Portfolio: Don't put all your eggs in one basket.Diversify your portfolio by investing in a variety of assets.
4. Use Stop-Loss Orders: Protect your capital by using stop-loss orders to limit your potential losses.
5. Stay Informed: Keep up-to-date with the latest news and developments in the cryptocurrency market.
6. Be Patient: Don't expect to get rich quick.Bitcoin is a long-term investment, and it requires patience and discipline.

Common Questions About Bitcoin's Price Movements

Here are some frequently asked questions related to Bitcoin price fluctuations.

Why is Bitcoin so volatile?

Bitcoin's volatility stems from its limited supply, speculative trading, regulatory uncertainty, and susceptibility to market sentiment.As a relatively new asset class, it's still finding its footing.

Can Bitcoin reach new all-time highs?

Yes, it's possible.Factors like increased adoption, institutional investment, and positive regulatory developments could drive Bitcoin to new highs.However, there's no guarantee.

Should I buy Bitcoin now?

That depends on your individual risk tolerance and investment goals.Conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and invest only what you can afford to lose.

Conclusion: Proceed with Caution, but Don't Ignore the Potential

The recent Bitcoin rally to $40,000 has undoubtedly injected some much-needed optimism into the cryptocurrency market.However, the cautious sentiment among professional traders serves as a reminder that the market remains vulnerable to corrections and unexpected events.While the bears scattered, the pros remain weary.By analyzing derivatives data, studying historical patterns, and considering the macroeconomic environment, investors can gain a more nuanced understanding of the risks and opportunities in the current market.Remember the significant CME gap around $78,000 level and use this as a magnet for potential price correction.

Whether you're a seasoned trader or a newcomer to the crypto space, it's crucial to proceed with caution, manage your risk effectively, and stay informed about the latest developments and trends.While the potential rewards of investing in Bitcoin are significant, it's essential to remember that there is also a substantial risk of loss.The key is to strike a balance between optimism and prudence, and to make informed decisions based on your own individual circumstances.Ultimately, the future of Bitcoin remains uncertain, but by approaching the market with a clear head and a well-defined strategy, investors can increase their chances of success.