ANALYST PLANB: WEAK DOLLAR CAN UPEND BITCOIN STOCK-TO-FLOW MODEL

The world of Bitcoin price prediction is often filled with complex models and fervent debates.Among these, the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, popularized by the pseudonymous analyst PlanB, stands out for its bold forecasts and reliance on Bitcoin's inherent scarcity.PlanB, a quantitative analyst from the Netherlands, has captivated the crypto community with his S2F model, initially outlined in his groundbreaking article ""Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity."" This model, drawing parallels between Bitcoin and precious metals like gold, leverages the concept of scarcity to project future price appreciation, suggesting Bitcoin could reach astronomical values within the current bull market cycle. In short, the stock-to-flow model and I think that Bitcoin s average price in those four years, in the next four years, will be within $250,000 and $1 million. Source: PlanB/YouTube The analyst also says that there are major bullish catalysts coming out of America, including the election of very pro-Bitcoin Donald Trump as US President.But what happens to this model when external forces, like a weakening US dollar, come into play? The creator of the highly popular Stock-to-Flow model for forecasting the Bitcoin price says he would be happy if it stays valid for the next 12 years.PlanB: Stock-to-Flow not until 2140. In aCould a decline in the dollar's strength throw off the S2F's calculations, potentially altering Bitcoin's predicted trajectory?This article dives into PlanB's S2F model, examines its core principles, explores the potential impact of a weak dollar, and analyzes what it all means for Bitcoin's future. A new Plan B crypto analyst Bitcoin stock to flow model predicts Bitcoin will reach $100K by 2025. Here s how the Bitcoin Stock to Flow works.Get ready to delve into the fascinating world of Bitcoin price modeling and the factors that could shape its destiny.

Understanding PlanB's Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Model

At its core, the Stock-to-Flow model is a valuation method used to predict the price of an asset based on its scarcity.The ""stock"" refers to the existing supply of the asset, while the ""flow"" represents the annual production rate.In simpler terms, the S2F ratio indicates how many years it would take, at the current production rate, to reproduce the existing stock.A higher S2F ratio suggests greater scarcity and, consequently, a higher potential price.

Before PlanB applied it to Bitcoin, the S2F ratio was primarily used in commodity markets, particularly for assets like gold and silver. Stock-to-Flow measures Bitcoin price using the existing available supply the stock and the number of new Bitcoin units entering circulation the flow. Bitcoin s flow halves roughly every four years in what is called a block reward halving.Gold, traditionally considered a store of value, boasts a high S2F ratio because its existing supply is vast and the annual production is relatively limited. With the Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model as our guide, we can gain valuable insights into Bitcoin's scarcity, value proposition, and future prospects. As the cryptocurrency landscape continues to evolve, understanding this model can provide investors with a unique perspective on Bitcoin's potential.This inherent scarcity contributes to its perceived value. Renowned analyst PlanB has set a striking forecast for bitcoin, projecting that its price could soar to $500,000 within the current four-year halving cycle. This ambitious outlook is built on both PlanB s well-known stock-to-flow model and favorable political developments in the United States.PlanB recognized the similarities between Bitcoin and gold, particularly Bitcoin's limited supply cap of 21 million coins.

How does the S2F model work for Bitcoin?

PlanB adapted the S2F model to Bitcoin by considering its predictable and decreasing supply.Bitcoin's code dictates that the block reward, the amount of Bitcoin miners receive for verifying transactions, is halved approximately every four years.This event, known as a ""halving,"" reduces the flow of new Bitcoin entering circulation, effectively increasing its S2F ratio.With each halving, Bitcoin becomes scarcer, theoretically driving up its price according to the S2F model.In fact, Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio has already surpassed gold's.

The formula used in the original S2F model is based on monthly Stock-to-Flow and price data, indexed in time. Popular quant analyst PlanB is doubling down on his prediction that Bitcoin will surge to an astronomical value in the current bull market cycle.In a video update, the pseudonymous analyst tells his 188,000 YouTube subscribers that his stock-to-flow (S2F) model indicates Bitcoin may soon soar anywhere between $250,000 and $1 million.The model has been backtested against historical Bitcoin price data and has shown a relatively strong correlation, leading to its popularity within the crypto community.

PlanB's Price Predictions and Halving Cycles

PlanB's S2F model has fueled some audacious Bitcoin price predictions. Stock-to-Flow model which was created by Plan B treats Bitcoin like gold and silver, retaining its value due to its limited supply and the significant effort required to mine the remaining coins. This model calculates scarcity by comparing current stock to annual production, which is reduced every four years upon a halving event, increasingBased on the model, he projected that Bitcoin could reach an average price of $500,000 within the current four-year halving cycle. This page is inspired by Medium article Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity written by Twitter user PlanB. What is Bitcoin stock to flow. The 'Stock-to-flow' is a number that shows how many years, at the current production rate, are required to achieve the current stock. The higher the number, the higher the expected price.He has also suggested potential scenarios where Bitcoin could even reach $1 million.He believes the average price in this cycle will be between $250,000 and $1 million.

These predictions are tied to Bitcoin's halving cycles. Plan B is an anonymous Bitcoin analyst known for the S2F model. He has a solid financial background but left traditional finance for Bitcoin. Plan B s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model is a framework for evaluating an asset s scarcity based on its existing supply (stock) relative to its annual production (flow).As the block reward decreases with each halving, the S2F ratio increases, theoretically pushing the price higher.The next halving is anticipated in 2025, further increasing Bitcoin's scarcity.PlanB believes the S2F will then climb to 113, further solidifying its status as a store of value.This halving will increase the value of Bitcoin, much like previous halvings have done.

The 2025 Halving Event

The upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2025 is a pivotal moment for the S2F model.This event, where the block reward is reduced again, is expected to significantly impact Bitcoin's supply dynamics.As the flow of new Bitcoin decreases, the S2F ratio will increase further, potentially leading to a substantial price surge if the model holds true.

Many within the crypto community are optimistic about the halving's potential impact.Some even believe that Bitcoin is poised to ""take off"" after the event, echoing PlanB's sentiment.The halving is thus a critical test for the S2F model's validity and its ability to accurately predict Bitcoin's price trajectory.

The Impact of a Weak Dollar on Bitcoin's Price and the S2F Model

The Stock-to-Flow model primarily focuses on Bitcoin's internal dynamics – its scarcity and supply schedule.However, external factors, such as the strength of the US dollar, can also influence Bitcoin's price and potentially impact the model's accuracy. He created the bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model where he uses scarcity to quantify bitcoin value. S2F model is not only applicable to bitcoin but also to gold, silver and other assets. PlanB is currently working as an investment manager in a team managing a multi billion dollar balance sheet. In 2025, PlanB's S2F model is widely cited afterA weakening dollar could introduce significant complexities.

How does a weak dollar affect Bitcoin?

• Increased Demand for Alternative Assets: A weak dollar often prompts investors to seek alternative assets, such as gold and Bitcoin, as hedges against inflation and currency devaluation. The analyst adapted the S2F model to Bitcoin to predict the performance of the BTC based on the idea that the price increases as the asset becomes more scarce. Says Plan B, After the ETF fake-out earlier this year, Bitcoin is now ready to take off. The Stock-to-flow model predicts $500,000 average with $250, million bandwidth.This increased demand can drive up Bitcoin's price, regardless of its S2F ratio.
• Inflated Bitcoin Price in USD Terms: If the dollar weakens, the price of Bitcoin, when denominated in US dollars, might appear higher simply because the dollar is worth less.This doesn't necessarily mean Bitcoin's intrinsic value has increased, but rather that the measuring stick (the dollar) has shrunk.
• Altered S2F Relationship: A weak dollar could distort the relationship between Bitcoin's S2F ratio and its price. Before being used by Plan B, the Stock-to-Flow ratio was used in commodity markets such as gold and silver, each of which had Stock-to-Flow ratios of respectively. Previously, gold had the highest Stock-to-Flow ratio of any asset. With the recent halving of the bitcoin supply, bitcoin s Stock-to-Flow ratio has surpassed gold s.The model might predict a certain price based on scarcity, but the actual price could be higher due to dollar weakness, potentially leading to an overvaluation according to the model.

Let's imagine a scenario: The S2F model predicts a Bitcoin price of $260,000. In this book, Ammous explains the stock-to-flow model and how it creates value for gold and other scarce assets. Then in 2025, Plan B finally published his stock-to-flow model on bitcoin, which has gained huge popularity due to its quite accurate indications. Although lately, people have started to question its accuracy since it is now theHowever, due to a significant decline in the dollar's value, investors flock to Bitcoin, pushing its price to $300,000.In this case, the S2F model would underestimate Bitcoin's price due to its inability to account for the external factor of dollar weakness.

Can the S2F Model Adapt to External Factors?

The primary criticism of the Stock-to-Flow model is that it doesn't account for all factors that affect Bitcoin’s price. How to read the Bitcoin stock-to-flow chart. Thanks to the S2F model s popularity, finding this Bitcoin chart on PlanB's social media feeds or websites like LookIntoBitcoin or CoinGlass is pretty straightforward. Wherever traders review the BTC S2F chart, they see Bitcoin's market price in a color-coded line on top of price projections forThe S2F model is focused on the scarcity of the coin, but it may not capture a whole picture of market psychology, global macroeconomic events, technological advancement, competition from altcoins, and regulatory changes.However, while the base model doesn't explicitly incorporate these factors, PlanB has suggested that it could be adapted or used in conjunction with other models to account for external influences.

Here are some ways the S2F model could be adapted or supplemented:

• Incorporate Macroeconomic Indicators: Integrate macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation rates, interest rates, and currency strength, into the model to account for their impact on Bitcoin's price.
• Use Sentiment Analysis: Incorporate sentiment analysis tools to gauge market sentiment towards Bitcoin and adjust the model's predictions accordingly.
• Develop Hybrid Models: Combine the S2F model with other valuation models, such as on-chain analysis or network effect models, to create a more comprehensive forecasting tool.

Even with these adaptations, it's important to remember that all models are simplifications of reality and have limitations.The S2F model should be used as one tool among many in assessing Bitcoin's potential value.

Alternative Models and Bitcoin Price Drivers

While the S2F model is a popular framework for evaluating Bitcoin's scarcity, it's not the only model available.Other factors drive Bitcoin's price and alternative valuation models should be considered.

• Network Effect: Bitcoin's value increases as more people use it. The stock to flow will climb to 52, which is much closer to gold. The following halving, in 2025, will raise that number to 113 and remember - gold has stock to flow of only 62 and it does not have halving events. Now contrast Bitcoin's dynamic stock-to-flow with Gold's, who's stock-to-flow of 62 is not likely in increase.This network effect can drive demand and price appreciation.
• Adoption Rate: The rate at which individuals and institutions adopt Bitcoin influences its price. In a recent social media post, cryptocurrency analyst Plan B expressed optimism for Bitcoin's future, stating that after the ETF fake-out earlier this In a recent social media post, cryptocurrencyWider adoption leads to increased demand and higher prices.
• Regulatory Environment: Government regulations can significantly impact Bitcoin's price. Bitcoin is expected to hit at least $250,000 and a maximum of $1 million. Robert Kiyosaki maintains a bullish outlook on Bitcoin, and says he will buy more. Crypto analyst PlanB, creator of the Bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) model, has predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach an average price of $500,000 in 2025.Positive regulations can boost confidence, while negative regulations can stifle growth.
• Technological Advancements: Improvements to Bitcoin's technology, such as the Lightning Network, can enhance its usability and drive adoption, thereby influencing its price.
• On-Chain Analysis: Analyzing Bitcoin's blockchain data, such as transaction volume and active addresses, can provide insights into its health and potential price movements.

Other analysts have different projections.For example, some use time-based models to show that Bitcoin may reach $100K by 2025.Some other experts even predict Bitcoin may reach $700K in the current 4 year cycle.

Given these other factors, it's best to have a holistic view of Bitcoin.Relying solely on the stock-to-flow model can give you a limited and potentially misleading view.

Who is PlanB?A Brief Background

PlanB is the pseudonymous creator of the Stock-to-Flow model. PlanB @100trillionUSD, creator of the Stock-to-Flow model PlanB @100trillionUSD Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow. Articles Twitter YouTube Fav Exchange. PlanBHe is a quantitative analyst based in the Netherlands and works as an investment manager managing a multi-billion dollar balance sheet.

He gained prominence in the crypto community with his publication of ""Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity,"" where he introduced the S2F model. O Stock-to-Flow mede o pre o do Bitcoin usando o suprimento dispon vel existente - o estoque - e o n mero de novas unidades de Bitcoin que entram em circula o - o fluxo. O fluxo do Bitcoin diminui a cada 4 anos no que chamado do halvings recompensas de bloco. Cada evento diminui a quantia de BTC paga aos mineradores por um novo bloco.PlanB has a substantial following on social media, with over 1.9 million followers, and is known for sharing his insights and predictions on Bitcoin.

His background in traditional finance gives him a unique perspective on Bitcoin's potential as a store of value and a hedge against traditional financial systems.Plan B left traditional finance to pursue Bitcoin.

Criticisms of the Stock-to-Flow Model

While popular, the Stock-to-Flow Model also has many criticisms. Bitcoin stock to flow (S2F) live data chart model. Daily updating model of Bitcoin stock to flow chart from Plan B @100trillion article Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity .Let's take a look at some:

• Oversimplification: Critics argue that the S2F model oversimplifies the complex factors that influence Bitcoin's price. Despite a steady climb past $110,000, Bitcoin remains meaningfully below its projected valuation according to the long-term Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model popularized by pseudonymous analyst PlanB. The model s latest 463-day forecast suggests Bitcoin should currently be trading at approximately $260,031, a more than 130% premium over its currentIt doesn't take into account the demand side of the equation, focusing solely on supply.
• External Factors Ignored: The model doesn't explicitly account for external factors such as macroeconomic conditions, regulatory changes, and technological advancements.
• Correlation vs. PlanB is not only the creator of the Stock-to-flow model but also a figure that has captured the attention of the cryptocurrency community. This model aims to explain Bitcoin price movements and mechanics, making it essential for anyone new to Bitcoin and eager to learn. With over 1.9 million followers on social media and more [ ]Causation: Some argue that the correlation between Bitcoin's S2F ratio and its price doesn't necessarily imply causation. PlanB, a prominent crypto analyst, introduced the stock-to-flow model to predict Bitcoin s price movements based on its scarcity. The model has been widely discussed and debated within the crypto community and has garnered a significant following.There could be other factors at play that explain the observed relationship.
• Historical Data Reliance: The model relies heavily on historical data, which may not be a reliable predictor of future performance. Read more about PlanB s Stock-to-Flow model from PlanB s original blog post! More recently, the pseudonymous creator of the Stock-to-Flow Model, PlanB took to Twitter to ask Twitterati whether Bitcoin price would rally after its highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event coming up in 2025. Safe to say, crypto Twitter seemed pretty bullish.Bitcoin is a relatively new asset, and its price history is limited.

Even PlanB has stated that he'd be happy if the model remains valid for the next 12 years, suggesting he recognizes its potential limitations over the long term. Who is PlanB? PlanB is the anonymous creator of the stock to flow model. He is a quantitative analyst based in the Netherlands. What made PlanB famous? PlanB s original article titled: Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity. Does he have a current price prediction? PlanB s latest Bitcoin price prediction video was posted on Janu:Despite Bitcoin rising over $110,000, it's still below the long term stock-to-flow predictions.

Conclusion: Evaluating the S2F Model in a Dynamic World

PlanB's Stock-to-Flow model has undoubtedly sparked significant interest and debate within the Bitcoin community.It provides a compelling framework for understanding Bitcoin's potential value based on its scarcity. p Bitcoin price model could last up to 3 more halvings /p A Private Investor is a recipient of the information who meets all of the conditions set out below, the recipient:While the S2F model offers valuable insights, it's crucial to acknowledge its limitations and consider the impact of external factors, such as a weak dollar, on Bitcoin's price.A weakening dollar can complicate the model’s predictions and emphasize the need for additional macroeconomic considerations. Jedes Halving erh ht den Stock-to-Flow-Wert von Bitcoin und damit seine Knappheit. Plan B's Vorhersage f r Bitcoin basierend auf dem Stock-to-Flow Modell. Das Stock-to-Flow-Modell hat Analyst Plan B dazu veranlasst, einige interessante und ziemlich k hne Vorhersagen ber den zuk nftigen Preis von Bitcoin zu machen.Bitcoin is now ready to take off.The Stock-to-flow model predicts $500,000 average with $250, million bandwidth.

Here are the key takeaways:

• Scarcity is a Factor: Bitcoin's scarcity, driven by its limited supply and halving events, is a key factor in its potential value.
• The S2F Model: The Stock-to-Flow model provides a framework for valuing Bitcoin based on its scarcity, but it has limitations.
• External Factors Matter: External factors, such as a weak dollar, can influence Bitcoin's price and potentially distort the S2F model's predictions.
• Holistic View is Best: A holistic approach, considering the S2F model along with other valuation methods and market indicators, is essential for assessing Bitcoin's potential.

Ultimately, the future of Bitcoin's price remains uncertain, and no single model can predict it with absolute certainty. Bitcoin (BTC) Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model was published in March 2025 [1]. The original BTC S2F model is a formula based on monthly S2F and price data. Since the data points are indexed in timeUnderstanding the S2F model, its strengths, and its limitations, along with other market dynamics, is crucial for making informed investment decisions in the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency. His stock-to-flow model, which projects bitcoin s value through scarcity, has held up during previous market cycles, and his forecasts are respected across the Bitcoin community. According to PlanB, bitcoin could reach $500,000 within this halving cycle, which will conclude in roughly four years. PlanB sees bitcoin s price landing somewhereRemember to do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.