BEARS AIM TO PIN BITCOIN PRICE BELOW $46K LEADING INTO FRIDAYS $3B BTC OPTIONS EXPIRY

Last updated: June 19, 2025, 18:33 | Written by: Raoul Pal

Bears Aim To Pin Bitcoin Price Below $46K Leading Into Fridays $3B Btc Options Expiry
Bears Aim To Pin Bitcoin Price Below $46K Leading Into Fridays $3B Btc Options Expiry

The Bitcoin market is bracing for a potentially volatile Friday as a massive $3 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts expire.This week's market action has revealed that Bitcoin bulls may have been overly optimistic leading up to this event.Several bearish factors have converged, pushing Bitcoin's (BTC) price down to levels not seen in over 46 days. Bears aim to pin Bitcoin price below $46K leading into Friday s $3B BTC options expiry Bitcoin Septem This week's combination of bearish factors was enough to bring Bitcoin's (BTC) price down to its lowest levels in 46 days, and this nearly obliterated 86% of the $2 billion September call (buy) options that expire on Sept. 24.Consequently, the bears are now actively trying to keep the Bitcoin price suppressed below $46,000 leading into the expiry. Bears aim to pin Bitcoin price below $46K leading into Friday s $3B BTC options expiry This week s combination of bearish factors was enough to bring Bitcoin (BTC) price down to its lowestThis strategic move could effectively render a significant portion of bullish options worthless, giving bears a considerable advantage. Cardano Dogecoin Algorand Bitcoin Litecoin Basic Attention Token Bitcoin Cash. Bears aim to pin Bitcoin price below $46K leading into Friday s $3B BTC optionsThis looming event has sparked intense debate and speculation within the crypto community, with many wondering if this could lead to further downside or a potential bullish reversal after the dust settles.Understanding the dynamics of Bitcoin options expiry is crucial for anyone navigating the cryptocurrency market, especially with such a substantial amount of value at stake. Bears aim to pin Bitcoin price below $46K leading into Friday s $3B BTC options expiryThis article will delve into the intricacies of this event, exploring the factors contributing to the bearish sentiment and what it could mean for Bitcoin's future price action.

Understanding Bitcoin Options Expiry and Market Manipulation

Bitcoin options expiry refers to the date and time when Bitcoin options contracts cease to be valid. Bears aim to pin Bitcoin price below $46K leading into Friday s $3B BTC options expiry By evilchild In Crypto Report Posted Septem 0 Comment(s) This post was originally published on this siteAn option contract gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call option) or sell (put option) Bitcoin at a predetermined price (the strike price) on or before the expiry date.Market manipulation in the context of options expiry often involves large traders attempting to influence the price of Bitcoin to maximize their profits.

In this scenario, bears are trying to ""pin"" the price below $46,000.If they succeed, call options with strike prices above $46,000 will expire worthless, benefiting those who sold those call options (typically the bears). Find the latest Bitcoin news with 24-hour trading volume, analysis, video, price updates for BTC cryptocurrency, blockchain, mining at Cointelegraph.This is achieved through strategic selling pressure on Bitcoin in the spot market, creating downward price momentum.

How Options Expiry Influences Bitcoin Price

The expiry of Bitcoin options can have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency's price due to the actions traders take to position themselves favorably before the deadline. 5.9M subscribers in the Bitcoin community. Bitcoin is the currency of the Internet: a distributed, worldwide, decentralized digital money. UnlikeHere’s how:

  • Delta Hedging: As the expiry date approaches, market makers who have sold options (both calls and puts) need to hedge their positions.Delta hedging involves buying or selling Bitcoin to offset the risk associated with their options positions.This hedging activity can amplify price movements, especially as the expiry date nears.
  • Max Pain: The ""max pain"" point is the strike price where the maximum number of options contracts will expire worthless, causing the greatest financial loss to option buyers. Leader in cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, blockchain, DeFi, digital finance and Web 3.0 news with analysis, video and live price updates. BTC $ 104,402.14Market participants often attempt to push the price toward this level to benefit from the options they've sold.
  • Gamma Squeeze: In some cases, a rapid price movement can trigger a ""gamma squeeze."" This happens when market makers are forced to aggressively buy or sell Bitcoin to keep their hedges in place, leading to a cascade effect that can cause significant price volatility.

Bearish Factors Contributing to the Price Drop

Several factors have contributed to the current bearish sentiment in the Bitcoin market, paving the way for the bears' attempt to pin the price below $46,000. This week's price action shows Bitcoin bulls were a bit overzealous about Friday's $3 billion BTC options expiry. pin Bitcoin price below $46K leading into Friday s $3B BTC options expiryThese factors have created a perfect storm that has weakened the bulls' position.

  • Regulatory Concerns: Increased scrutiny from regulatory bodies worldwide always casts a shadow over the cryptocurrency market.Recent announcements regarding potential regulations on stablecoins and cryptocurrency exchanges have fueled uncertainty and prompted some investors to reduce their holdings.
  • Evergrande Contagion Fears: The financial troubles of Chinese property developer Evergrande have sent ripples through global markets, including the cryptocurrency sector.Concerns about potential contagion and a broader economic slowdown have dampened investor appetite for riskier assets like Bitcoin.
  • Profit-Taking: After a period of strong gains, some investors may have decided to take profits, contributing to the downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.This is a natural market cycle and often precedes periods of consolidation or correction.
  • Technical Indicators: From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin has broken below several key support levels, triggering sell signals and attracting further selling pressure.Failure to hold these levels has emboldened the bears and reinforced the negative sentiment.

The Significance of the $46,000 Price Level

The $46,000 price level holds significant importance due to the concentration of call options at strike prices above this threshold. Bears aim to pin Bitcoin price below $46K leading into Friday s $3B BTC options expiry Septem This week s price action shows Bitcoin bulls were a bit overzealous about Friday s $3 billion BTC options expiry.As mentioned earlier, roughly 86% of the $2 billion September call (buy) options have been placed at $46,000 or higher.If Bitcoin trades below this level at 8:00 am UTC on September 24th, these call options will expire worthless.

This creates a strong incentive for bears to defend this level. This bearish trend will continue if BTC closes the month of September below $47,110, its closing price on Aug. 31. Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Sept. 24. Source: Bybt.com. The September monthly expiry will be a strength test for bulls because 86% of the $2 million calls (buy) options have been placed at $46,000 or higher.By suppressing the price below $46,000, they can effectively wipe out a substantial portion of the bulls' investments and profit from their short positions. This week s price action shows Bitcoin bulls were a bit overzealous about Friday s $3 billion BTC options expiry. Post navigation Staking on Ethereum 2.0, explainedThe battle for this price level is, therefore, a crucial showdown between the bulls and the bears.

Impact on Call and Put Options: A Simplified Explanation

To better understand the potential impact of this expiry, let's clarify the difference between call and put options and how their value is affected by Bitcoin's price movement.

Call Options

A call option gives the buyer the right (but not the obligation) to buy Bitcoin at a specific price (the strike price) on or before the expiry date. This week's price action shows Bitcoin bulls were a bit overzealous about Friday's $3 billion BTC options expiry.If the price of Bitcoin is above the strike price at expiry, the call option is ""in the money"" and has value. Bears aim to pin Bitcoin price below $46K leading into Friday s $3B BTC options expiry This week's combination of bearish factors was enough to bring Bitcoin's (BTC) price down to its lowest levels in 46 days, and this nearly obliterated 86% of the $2 billionIf the price is below the strike price, the call option is ""out of the money"" and expires worthless.

For example, if you buy a call option with a strike price of $46,000 and Bitcoin's price is $47,000 at expiry, you can exercise the option to buy Bitcoin at $46,000 and immediately sell it in the market for $47,000, making a profit (minus the premium you paid for the option).

Put Options

A put option gives the buyer the right (but not the obligation) to sell Bitcoin at a specific price (the strike price) on or before the expiry date.If the price of Bitcoin is below the strike price at expiry, the put option is ""in the money"" and has value.If the price is above the strike price, the put option is ""out of the money"" and expires worthless.

For example, if you buy a put option with a strike price of $46,000 and Bitcoin's price is $45,000 at expiry, you can exercise the option to sell Bitcoin at $46,000, even though the market price is only $45,000, making a profit (minus the premium you paid for the option).

The Role of Open Interest in Bitcoin Options

Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding options contracts (both calls and puts) that have not been exercised or closed out. Option Market Analysis. This Friday, 24 of December 21, about $684 million worth of Bitcoin options contracts will expire in Deribit Exchange. The maximum pain price the strike price that brings maximum loss to option buyers is $48k.A high level of open interest suggests strong market participation and can amplify the impact of options expiry on Bitcoin's price.

In this case, the $3 billion in BTC options set to expire represents a significant amount of open interest.This large expiry size increases the potential for price volatility and market manipulation as traders adjust their positions leading up to the deadline.

Analyzing Potential Scenarios Post-Expiry

What happens after the $3 billion Bitcoin options expire on Friday? Consequently, if BTC trades below that price on Sept. 17, the neutral-to-bearish put option open interest is reduced to $285 million. A call option is a right to buy Bitcoin at a predetermined price on the set expiry date. Thus, a $50,000 call option becomes worthless if BTC trades below such price at 8:00 am UTC on Sept. 24.There are several possible scenarios:

  1. Bullish Reversal: If the bears successfully pin the price below $46,000 leading into expiry, a potential bullish reversal could occur afterward.With a large number of call options expiring worthless, the downward pressure on Bitcoin's price could subside, allowing bulls to regain control.
  2. Continued Bearish Trend: Alternatively, the bearish factors that have contributed to the recent price drop could persist even after the options expiry.If negative news or macroeconomic concerns continue to weigh on the market, Bitcoin's price could continue to decline.
  3. Consolidation: After a period of volatility, Bitcoin's price could enter a period of consolidation, trading within a defined range. View crypto prices and charts, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and more. Earn free crypto. Market highlights including top gainer, highest volume, new listings, and most visited, updated every 24 hours.This could happen if the market is uncertain about the future direction of Bitcoin and investors are waiting for more clarity before making significant moves.

What Can Traders Do to Navigate This Volatile Period?

Given the potential for increased volatility leading up to and after the Bitcoin options expiry, traders should exercise caution and implement risk management strategies.

  • Reduce Leverage: High leverage can amplify both profits and losses. cointelegraph.com: This week's price action shows Bitcoin bulls were a bit overzealous about Friday's $3 billion BTC options expiry.Consider reducing your leverage to minimize potential losses if Bitcoin's price moves against you.
  • Use Stop-Loss Orders: Stop-loss orders can help limit your downside risk by automatically selling your Bitcoin if the price falls below a predetermined level.
  • Diversify Your Portfolio: Avoid putting all your eggs in one basket. This week s price action shows Bitcoin bulls were a bit overzealous about Friday s $3 billion BTC options expiry. This week s combination of bearish factors was enough to bring Bitcoin s (BTC) price down to its lowest levels in 46 days, and this nearly obliterated 86% of the $2 billion September call (buy) options that expire on Sept. 24.Diversifying your portfolio across different cryptocurrencies and asset classes can help mitigate risk.
  • Stay Informed: Keep up-to-date with the latest news and analysis regarding Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market.Understanding the factors that are influencing price movements can help you make more informed trading decisions.
  • Consider Sitting on the Sidelines: If you are unsure about the market's direction, it may be prudent to sit on the sidelines and wait for the volatility to subside before making any new trades.There is no shame in protecting your capital.

Is Market Manipulation Always a Bad Thing?

While the term ""market manipulation"" often carries a negative connotation, its impact is not always straightforward.While it can lead to short-term losses for some traders, it can also create opportunities for others.

For example, a coordinated effort to suppress the price of Bitcoin leading into options expiry could create a buying opportunity for long-term investors who believe in the asset's long-term potential.Similarly, a sudden price surge triggered by a gamma squeeze could provide an opportunity for short-term traders to profit from the volatility.

Ultimately, the impact of market manipulation depends on individual circumstances and risk tolerance.However, it's essential to be aware of the potential for manipulation and to take steps to protect yourself from its adverse effects.

The Long-Term Outlook for Bitcoin After the Options Expiry

While the short-term impact of the Bitcoin options expiry is uncertain, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive.Despite the recent price volatility and bearish sentiment, Bitcoin's fundamental value proposition as a decentralized, scarce, and censorship-resistant digital asset remains intact.

Increased adoption by institutional investors, the growing popularity of Bitcoin as a store of value, and the continued development of the Bitcoin ecosystem all support the long-term bullish case for Bitcoin.While short-term price fluctuations are inevitable, the long-term trend is likely to remain upward.

Will Bitcoin close September below $47,110?

Whether Bitcoin closes the month of September below $47,110, its closing price on August 31st, remains to be seen.The outcome will largely depend on the interplay between bullish and bearish forces in the market.The ongoing battle around the $46,000 level suggests it could be a close call.

If the bearish factors mentioned earlier persist, there's a good chance that Bitcoin could close below this level.However, if positive news or a surge in buying pressure emerges, Bitcoin could rally and close the month on a positive note.

Conclusion: Navigating the Bitcoin Options Expiry

The upcoming $3 billion Bitcoin options expiry presents both challenges and opportunities for traders.The bears are currently attempting to pin Bitcoin price below $46K, a key level that could invalidate a substantial amount of call options.Understanding the dynamics of options expiry, the factors contributing to the bearish sentiment, and potential post-expiry scenarios is crucial for navigating this volatile period.Remember to manage your risk, stay informed, and be prepared for potential price swings.Whether you're a seasoned trader or a newcomer to the cryptocurrency market, this event serves as a valuable reminder of the importance of due diligence and risk management in the world of Bitcoin.

Key Takeaways:

  • A $3 billion Bitcoin options expiry is happening on Friday.
  • Bears are trying to keep the price below $46,000 to maximize their profits.
  • Regulatory concerns, Evergrande fears, and profit-taking are contributing to the bearish sentiment.
  • Traders should reduce leverage, use stop-loss orders, and diversify their portfolios.
  • The long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive despite short-term volatility.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.Trading cryptocurrencies involves significant risks, and you could lose your entire investment.Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Raoul Pal can be reached at [email protected].

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